TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137014
Played Sep 16Finished
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116811711811––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 63.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 7–18 Daniil Habrelyan Yevhenii Holoborodko has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-18 in 25
Habrelyan
Correct
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1595 vs Habrelyan 1566
Holoborodko
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 60% vs Habrelyan 40%
Holoborodko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 70% vs Habrelyan 50%
Holoborodko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko +1 · Habrelyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 2.50 / Habrelyan 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Habrelyan)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13137014
Holoborodko2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 65 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Habrelyan1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 21 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko2wins
AwayHabrelyan8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHabrelyan leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHabrelyan75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko2Habrelyan8n = 10Habrelyan took 8 of 10
S2Holoborodko3Habrelyan7n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S3Holoborodko3Habrelyan7n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S4Holoborodko5Habrelyan1n = 6Holoborodko took 5 of 6
S5Holoborodko0Habrelyan3n = 3Habrelyan took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoHabrelyanHoloborodko − HabrelyanBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.040.9−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 636 vs 189 / 40252.2%47%332 / 636 vs 189 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanHoloborodko 2.50/Habrelyan 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko2668120D. Habrelyan361111143
LSep 8 · 05:00Y. Holoborodko2486100D. Habrelyan341111123
LSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko4211651192D. Habrelyan49711119113
LSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko219390D. Habrelyan331111113
LAug 28 · 08:00Y. Holoborodko189450D. Habrelyan331111113
LAug 26 · 14:40Y. Holoborodko51147111182D. Habrelyan50161157113
WAug 19 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko3731112113D. Habrelyan321171041
LAug 16 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko4342141132D. Habrelyan571119115113
LAug 12 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko361111951D. Habrelyan4051311113
WJul 11 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko52101615113D. Habrelyan4512141361
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 16 · 11:40V. Merzlikin2.005680Y. Holoborodko1.731111113LSep 14 · 11:35V. Ishchuk2.20111148113Y. Holoborodko1.6198111172WSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.831112133Y. Holoborodko1.83610110WSep 14 · 07:05A. Troyan2.5079111152Y. Holoborodko1.50111197113WSep 14 · 05:05Y. Volkov2.0071161142Y. Holoborodko1.73118118113WSep 13 · 11:30A. Zozulia2.00111169112Y. Holoborodko1.73881111133LSep 13 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko2.636760A. Droshchynskyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113WSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 16 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.40109111162D. Habrelyan2.75121168113LSep 9 · 17:10D. Habrelyan1.6191111872O. Nadporozhskyi2.20118311113LSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100
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