TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126445
Played Sep 14Finished
Vadym Ishchuk
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119118411811117
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadym Ishchuk above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 57.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Ishchuk 3–6 Yevhenii Holoborodko Vadym Ishchuk has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ishchuk 1624 vs Holoborodko 1594
Ishchuk
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ishchuk 60% vs Holoborodko 80%
Holoborodko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ishchuk 50% vs Holoborodko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ishchuk +2 · Holoborodko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holoborodko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIshchuk 2.20 / Holoborodko 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holoborodko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126445
Ishchuk2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back6% 2 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Holoborodko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 117 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it69% 73 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeIshchuk3wins
AwayHoloborodko6wins
5 of 9 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIshchuk40%2 of 5
AwayHoloborodko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ishchuk5Holoborodko4n = 9Ishchuk took 5 of 9
S2Ishchuk5Holoborodko4n = 9Ishchuk took 5 of 9
S3Ishchuk2Holoborodko7n = 9Holoborodko took 7 of 9
S4Ishchuk4Holoborodko5n = 9Holoborodko took 5 of 9
S5Ishchuk2Holoborodko3n = 5Holoborodko took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricIshchukHoloborodkoI − HBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match42.743.3−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIshchukHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 358 vs 331 / 63441.9%52.2%150 / 358 vs 331 / 634Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoIshchuk 2.20/Holoborodko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ishchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 1 · 11:10V. Ishchuk501111101262Y. Holoborodko551391210113
WAug 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk531110813113Y. Holoborodko47612111172
LMay 10 · 10:00V. Ishchuk30511771Y. Holoborodko4011711113
WMay 9 · 12:40V. Ishchuk49711119113Y. Holoborodko4511881172
LApr 26 · 04:30V. Ishchuk34127961Y. Holoborodko43101111113
WApr 25 · 17:10V. Ishchuk4111118113Y. Holoborodko30881131
LApr 14 · 06:20V. Ishchuk35911691Y. Holoborodko3911611113
LApr 10 · 20:20V. Ishchuk5011991292Y. Holoborodko452111110113
LMar 10 · 13:20V. Ishchuk42111211172Y. Holoborodko46914111113
V. Ishchuk10
WSep 14 · 09:35Y. Volkov2.257860V. Ishchuk1.571111113WSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 07:35A. Obishchenko1.6111117113V. Ishchuk2.20351181LSep 14 · 06:05V. Ishchuk1.801011871A. Troyan1.9112711113WSep 1 · 16:40A. Kotiash2.1041050V. Ishchuk1.671112113WSep 1 · 15:40V. Ishchuk1.73911119133O. Karpenko2.00119911112LSep 1 · 14:40V. Ishchuk2.2591450R. Sopivnyk1.571116113WSep 1 · 13:10V. Ishchuk2.38111110133M. Tiutiunnyk1.535612111LSep 1 · 11:10V. Ishchuk2.201111101262Y. Holoborodko1.611391210113LAug 14 · 12:05R. Sopivnyk1.6711119113V. Ishchuk2.10671171
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 09:05A. Obishchenko1.831112133Y. Holoborodko1.83610110WSep 14 · 07:05A. Troyan2.5079111152Y. Holoborodko1.50111197113WSep 14 · 05:05Y. Volkov2.0071161142Y. Holoborodko1.73118118113WSep 13 · 11:30A. Zozulia2.00111169112Y. Holoborodko1.73881111133LSep 13 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko2.636760A. Droshchynskyi1.441111113WSep 13 · 08:00O. Varlamov1.8068111182Y. Holoborodko1.91111186113WSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113LSep 13 · 05:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.8011911113Y. Holoborodko1.91611931WSep 1 · 11:10V. Ishchuk2.201111101262Y. Holoborodko1.611391210113
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