TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136686
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleh Kuzyshyn
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012911116118611
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Kuzyshyn to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Kuzyshyn above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleh Kuzyshyn at 66.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kuzyshyn 16–9 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-9 in 25
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzyshyn 1642 vs Habrelyan 1553
Kuzyshyn
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzyshyn 20% vs Habrelyan 40%
Habrelyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzyshyn 30% vs Habrelyan 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzyshyn +1 · Habrelyan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kuzyshyn)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzyshyn form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzyshyn 1.40 / Habrelyan 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kuzyshyn)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136686
Kuzyshyn1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 47 of 60
Habrelyan2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 26 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzyshyn8wins
AwayHabrelyan2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzyshyn leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzyshyn87.5%7 of 8
AwayHabrelyann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzyshyn8Habrelyan2n = 10Kuzyshyn took 8 of 10
S2Kuzyshyn7Habrelyan3n = 10Kuzyshyn took 7 of 10
S3Kuzyshyn4Habrelyan6n = 10Habrelyan took 6 of 10
S4Kuzyshyn4Habrelyan2n = 6Kuzyshyn took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzyshynHabrelyanK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.832.4+5.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzyshynHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 439 vs 194 / 41452.4%46.9%230 / 439 vs 194 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzyshynKuzyshyn 1.40/Habrelyan 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Kuzyshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn351113113D. Habrelyan2371150
WAug 19 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn331111113D. Habrelyan199640
WAug 12 · 11:10O. Kuzyshyn4111118113D. Habrelyan31571181
WMay 2 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn341211113D. Habrelyan2110650
WMar 29 · 04:30O. Kuzyshyn44118113113D. Habrelyan3541141152
WMar 28 · 14:10O. Kuzyshyn47811611113D. Habrelyan4511811962
WFeb 15 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn4011117113D. Habrelyan36991171
WFeb 14 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn401111993D. Habrelyan33961171
LFeb 8 · 11:30O. Kuzyshyn33119851D. Habrelyan4291111113
LFeb 7 · 17:40O. Kuzyshyn31151060D. Habrelyan391712103
O. Kuzyshyn10
WSep 10 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.838970O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113LSep 10 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn1.73811813122M. Tiutiunnyk2.001191111143LSep 10 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn2.206590O. Zhyrnov1.611111113LSep 10 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.8011611652A. Zozulia1.91411811113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kuzyshyn1.3687110Y. Holoborodko3.001111133LSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101LSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113WSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 9 · 17:10D. Habrelyan1.6191111872O. Nadporozhskyi2.20118311113LSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162
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