TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135755
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191166111113117
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 2–4 Tomas Dousek Martin Skotnica has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:46What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1864 vs Dousek 1922
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 60% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 70% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +1 · Dousek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 2.00 / Dousek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dousek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135755
Skotnica2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 4 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Dousek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 105 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it91% 49 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it75% 82 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSkotnica2wins
AwayDousek4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderDousek leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica40%2 of 5
AwayDousekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica5Dousek1n = 6Skotnica took 5 of 6
S2Skotnica3Dousek3n = 6split evenly
S3Skotnica3Dousek3n = 6split evenly
S4Skotnica0Dousek5n = 5Dousek took 5 of 5
S5Skotnica1Dousek2n = 3Dousek took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSkotnicaDousekS − DBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match40.842.2−1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 224 vs 249 / 46855.4%53.2%124 / 224 vs 249 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekSkotnica 2.00/Dousek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LApr 3 · 14:00M. Skotnica351210851T. Dousek44101211113
LFeb 26 · 17:00M. Skotnica46111171072T. Dousek50881112113
WFeb 23 · 16:30M. Skotnica361111143T. Dousek2787120
WFeb 19 · 16:30M. Skotnica51119119113T. Dousek4591181162
LJan 23 · 17:00M. Skotnica47711111172T. Dousek45115513113
LJan 8 · 17:00M. Skotnica30116941T. Dousek4291111113
M. Skotnica10
WSep 16 · 14:00R. Polasek1.8386111162M. Skotnica1.83111186113LSep 9 · 17:00M. Skotnica1.61101111852L. Prikasky2.20129611113LSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.618111110113L. Prikasky2.2011561252LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191
T. Dousek10
WSep 16 · 14:30T. Dousek1.671114113T. Zika2.1081270WSep 15 · 20:58T. Dousek3.001111113J. Dzida1.369790LSep 15 · 20:30T. Dousek2.00912110D. Opanasiuk1.731114133WSep 15 · 19:00T. Dousek3.00111168113J. Dzida1.3693111182LSep 15 · 18:00M. Biolek1.53119811113T. Dousek2.3891111772LSep 14 · 21:30T. Dousek2.5011530R. Niezgoda1.501311113WSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113WSep 14 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.80581161T. Dousek1.9111116113LSep 14 · 18:30T. Dousek1.73811111082L. Prikasky2.00113912113WSep 13 · 21:00T. Dousek2.0013611113D. Opanasiuk1.731111751
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