TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13134509
Played Sep 16Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811611118116611
Martin Skotnica
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Martin Skotnica below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 58.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 7–6 Martin Skotnica Martin Skotnica has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skotnica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1891 vs Skotnica 1840
Polasek
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 60% vs Skotnica 40%
Polasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 70% vs Skotnica 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek +2 · Skotnica -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.83 / Skotnica 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polasek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13134509
Polasek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Skotnica1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek6wins
AwaySkotnica4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkotnica42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek3Skotnica7n = 10Skotnica took 7 of 10
S2Polasek6Skotnica4n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S3Polasek4Skotnica6n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S4Polasek5Skotnica3n = 8Polasek took 5 of 8
S5Polasek3Skotnica1n = 4Polasek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekSkotnicaP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.2+0.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekSkotnicaBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 904 vs 123 / 22350.9%55.2%460 / 904 vs 123 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekPolasek 1.83/Skotnica 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek33711781M. Skotnica4111811113
LJun 29 · 13:00R. Polasek176830M. Skotnica331111113
WJun 29 · 11:00R. Polasek539111111113M. Skotnica3711513352
WMay 7 · 15:00R. Polasek47111411113M. Skotnica41916881
WApr 28 · 16:00R. Polasek52811517113M. Skotnica52116111592
LMar 31 · 16:30R. Polasek197390M. Skotnica331111113
WMar 25 · 18:00R. Polasek43111110113M. Skotnica36981271
LMar 25 · 16:00R. Polasek54138119132M. Skotnica571111911153
WMar 20 · 12:00R. Polasek4071111113M. Skotnica34118691
WMar 16 · 13:00R. Polasek51911119113M. Skotnica3811391142
R. Polasek10
WSep 16 · 15:30T. Zika1.83891181R. Polasek1.8311117113WSep 15 · 13:00R. Polasek2.2511912113J. Szotkowski1.577111081WSep 15 · 12:30R. Polasek1.7391111133M. Vavrecka2.001166111LSep 15 · 11:00R. Polasek2.2014250D. Opanasiuk1.611611113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111185113R. Polasek2.2583111142WSep 14 · 13:30R. Polasek1.8011116113M. Vavrecka1.90941181WSep 14 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.50891171R. Polasek2.5011112113WSep 14 · 11:00P. Wawrosz1.831146101R. Polasek1.8391111123WSep 14 · 10:30R. Polasek1.8012811113M. Vavrecka1.911011561WSep 14 · 09:30P. Wawrosz1.85117381R. Polasek1.8551111113
M. Skotnica10
WSep 16 · 15:00M. Skotnica2.001111611113T. Dousek1.7396111372LSep 9 · 17:00M. Skotnica1.61101111852L. Prikasky2.20129611113LSep 9 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.73431171M. Grundel2.0011113113WSep 9 · 15:30R. Polasek1.75711781M. Skotnica1.9511811113WSep 9 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.618111110113L. Prikasky2.2011561252LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191
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