TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129506
Played Sep 15Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111161161311––
Michal Vavrecka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Michal Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 46–37 Michal Vavrecka Michal Vavrecka has won 37 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-37 in 83
Polasek
Correct
gap of 9 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1879 vs Vavrecka 1819
Polasek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 60% vs Vavrecka 80%
Vavrecka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 70% vs Vavrecka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek -2 · Vavrecka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Polasek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.73 / Vavrecka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Polasek)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129506
Polasek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 153 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it86% 78 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it72% 108 of 150
Vavrecka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 144 of 331
Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek6wins
AwayVavrecka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek85.7%6 of 7
AwayVavrecka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek7Vavrecka3n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S2Polasek5Vavrecka5n = 10split evenly
S3Polasek6Vavrecka4n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10
S4Polasek4Vavrecka4n = 8split evenly
S5Polasek1Vavrecka2n = 3Vavrecka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekVavreckaP − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.341.0+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 903 vs 1003 / 198850.8%50.5%459 / 903 vs 1003 / 1988Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekPolasek 1.73/Vavrecka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek52111312882M. Vavrecka536151011113
LSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek4481111862M. Vavrecka48119611113
WAug 31 · 08:30R. Polasek4314117113M. Vavrecka361251181
WAug 30 · 08:30R. Polasek341112113M. Vavrecka2451090
WAug 29 · 08:30R. Polasek47111312113M. Vavrecka417151091
LAug 28 · 12:30R. Polasek31511871M. Vavrecka4111811113
LAug 26 · 09:30R. Polasek193970M. Vavrecka331111113
WAug 26 · 08:30R. Polasek47141111113M. Vavrecka371213751
WAug 25 · 06:30R. Polasek47121428113M. Vavrecka521012111182
WAug 23 · 20:59R. Polasek4912916123M. Vavrecka45101114101
R. Polasek10
WSep 15 · 13:00R. Polasek2.2511912113J. Szotkowski1.577111081LSep 15 · 11:00R. Polasek2.2014250D. Opanasiuk1.611611113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111185113R. Polasek2.2583111142WSep 14 · 13:30R. Polasek1.8011116113M. Vavrecka1.90941181WSep 14 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.50891171R. Polasek2.5011112113WSep 14 · 11:00P. Wawrosz1.831146101R. Polasek1.8391111123WSep 14 · 10:30R. Polasek1.8012811113M. Vavrecka1.911011561WSep 14 · 09:30P. Wawrosz1.85117381R. Polasek1.8551111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Vavrecka1.9111101211113R. Polasek1.8071214392WSep 14 · 07:30R. Polasek1.731211113R. Revay2.0010570
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 15 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.5011911113J. Szotkowski1.50811991WSep 15 · 10:30D. Opanasiuk1.61911871M. Vavrecka2.2011611113LSep 14 · 13:30R. Polasek1.8011116113M. Vavrecka1.90941181WSep 14 · 12:30P. Wawrosz2.00611661M. Vavrecka1.7311811113WSep 14 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.6311811113J. Szotkowski1.44611591LSep 14 · 10:30R. Polasek1.8012811113M. Vavrecka1.911011561LSep 14 · 08:58M. Vavrecka1.807111111112R. Revay1.91114138133WSep 14 · 08:30M. Vavrecka1.9111101211113R. Polasek1.8071214392LSep 14 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.737111191P. Wawrosz2.0011139113WSep 14 · 06:00R. Revay2.1010880M. Vavrecka1.671211113
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