TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125042
Played Sep 14Finished
Pavel Wawrosz
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118611611––
Michal Vavrecka
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Michal Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 64.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 32–26 Michal Vavrecka Michal Vavrecka has won 26 of their 58 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Wawrosz beat Vavrecka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vavrecka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-26 in 58
Wawrosz
Wrong
gap of 6 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1712 vs Vavrecka 1811
Vavrecka
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 40% vs Vavrecka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 30% vs Vavrecka 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz -3 · Vavrecka +1
Wawrosz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vavrecka) · live re-read · sealed at 36% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 2.00 / Vavrecka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vavrecka)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125042
Wawrosz2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 42 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back36% 13 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back22% 4 of 18
Vavrecka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 143 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz5wins
AwayVavrecka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawroszn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVavrecka62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz2Vavrecka8n = 10Vavrecka took 8 of 10
S2Wawrosz6Vavrecka4n = 10Wawrosz took 6 of 10
S3Wawrosz2Vavrecka8n = 10Vavrecka took 8 of 10
S4Wawrosz4Vavrecka3n = 7Wawrosz took 4 of 7
S5Wawrosz3Vavrecka0n = 3Wawrosz took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszVavreckaW − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.238.1−0.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 428 vs 1003 / 199250.2%50.4%215 / 428 vs 1003 / 1992Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaWawrosz 2.00/Vavrecka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 12:30P. Wawrosz29611661M. Vavrecka4111811113
WSep 14 · 07:00P. Wawrosz4411139113M. Vavrecka387111191
WSep 6 · 20:30P. Wawrosz4291111113M. Vavrecka31117761
LSep 5 · 09:30P. Wawrosz29141050M. Vavrecka391612113
WSep 5 · 06:00P. Wawrosz451011211113M. Vavrecka4312711852
WAug 25 · 08:58P. Wawrosz511181011113M. Vavrecka3941112842
LAug 25 · 08:30P. Wawrosz34911681M. Vavrecka3611311113
LAug 23 · 16:00P. Wawrosz2341090M. Vavrecka341112113
WAug 19 · 06:30P. Wawrosz521111118113M. Vavrecka4713591192
LAug 17 · 13:30P. Wawrosz236890M. Vavrecka331111113
P. Wawrosz10
LSep 14 · 11:00P. Wawrosz1.831146101R. Polasek1.8391111123LSep 14 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.531111910123P. Wawrosz2.38671112102LSep 14 · 09:30P. Wawrosz1.85117381R. Polasek1.8551111113WSep 14 · 08:00R. Revay1.83511991P. Wawrosz1.8311711113WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.737111191P. Wawrosz2.0011139113LSep 14 · 06:30P. Wawrosz2.0081191172R. Polasek1.73118119113WSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla1.83741191P. Wawrosz1.8311115113LSep 13 · 16:00P. Wawrosz1.83791181R. Revay1.8311115113LSep 13 · 15:30J. Pilch1.8310101211113P. Wawrosz1.83121210222LSep 13 · 14:00P. Wawrosz1.67111151482M. Navedla2.104131112113
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 14 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.6311811113J. Szotkowski1.44611591LSep 14 · 10:30R. Polasek1.8012811113M. Vavrecka1.911011561LSep 14 · 08:58M. Vavrecka1.807111111112R. Revay1.91114138133WSep 14 · 08:30M. Vavrecka1.9111101211113R. Polasek1.8071214392LSep 14 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.737111191P. Wawrosz2.0011139113WSep 14 · 06:00R. Revay2.1010880M. Vavrecka1.671211113LSep 10 · 09:00M. Navedla2.1091111113M. Vavrecka1.67115451LSep 10 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.739101171R. Revay2.0011126113LSep 10 · 07:30J. Pilch2.001361111113M. Vavrecka1.73111181342LSep 10 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.578111131M. Navedla2.2511133113
Upcoming Matches
P. Wawrosz
Nothing scheduled
M. Vavrecka
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