TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13131519
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113511311––––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 54 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 1–1 Rostislav Niezgoda Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dousek beat Niezgoda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Dousek 60% vs Niezgoda 80%
Niezgoda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 80% vs Niezgoda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +2 · Niezgoda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 2.50 / Niezgoda 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Niezgoda)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13131519
Dousek2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 34 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Niezgoda1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDousek1wins
AwayNiezgoda1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricDousekNiezgodaD − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.032.5−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 463 vs 8 / 1053.1%80%246 / 463 vs 8 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaDousek 2.50/Niezgoda 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 14 · 21:30T. Dousek1911530R. Niezgoda351311113
WSep 14 · 19:00T. Dousek3911116113R. Niezgoda30581161
T. Dousek10
WSep 14 · 20:00M. Navedla2.251213581T. Dousek1.57101511113WSep 14 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.80581161T. Dousek1.9111116113LSep 14 · 18:30T. Dousek1.73811111082L. Prikasky2.00113912113WSep 13 · 21:00T. Dousek2.0013611113D. Opanasiuk1.731111751LSep 13 · 20:30J. Dzida1.401111123T. Dousek2.7558100WSep 13 · 19:30T. Dousek2.00111179113D. Opanasiuk1.7386111162WSep 13 · 18:30M. Biolek1.5011911952T. Dousek2.50711811113WSep 10 · 17:30T. Dousek1.851114113M. Cabis1.8581270WSep 10 · 16:30T. Dousek1.83711911113R. Polasek1.8311411642WSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek1.835121112143M. Cabis1.831110614122
R. Niezgoda10
WSep 14 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.731111113L. Prikasky2.003750LSep 14 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.80581161T. Dousek1.9111116113WSep 14 · 18:00M. Navedla1.8357111152R. Niezgoda1.83111188113WSep 9 · 21:10D. Sarganek2.357790R. Niezgoda1.481111113WSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730LSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WSep 8 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.2241111113M. Zaskodny4.00113571WSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 19:10M. Zaskodny3.406860R. Niezgoda1.301111113
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