TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13100818
Played Sep 8Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411113115117––
Marek Zaskodny
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Marek Zaskodny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 63 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 66.3%
63 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 22–7 Marek Zaskodny Marek Zaskodny has won 7 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Niezgoda beat Zaskodny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-7 in 29
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 15 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1834 vs Zaskodny 1614
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 100% vs Zaskodny 60%
Niezgoda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 70% vs Zaskodny 40%
Niezgoda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +5 · Zaskodny +1
Niezgoda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaskodny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.22 / Zaskodny 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Niezgoda)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13100818
Niezgoda1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 158 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it96% 87 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it80% 116 of 145
Zaskodny4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 49 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda9wins
AwayZaskodny1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda100%7 of 7
AwayZaskodny33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda7Zaskodny3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S2Niezgoda6Zaskodny4n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S3Niezgoda10Zaskodny0n = 10Niezgoda took 10 of 10
S4Niezgoda4Zaskodny1n = 5Niezgoda took 4 of 5
S5Niezgoda2Zaskodny1n = 3Niezgoda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaZaskodnyN − ZBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.031.2+9.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaZaskodnyBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 508 vs 118 / 28358.5%41.7%297 / 508 vs 118 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.22/Zaskodny 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 19:10R. Niezgoda—1111113M. Zaskodny—6860
WAug 24 · 13:40R. Niezgoda—111111113M. Zaskodny—137941
WAug 13 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—1116113M. Zaskodny—91480
WAug 12 · 17:40R. Niezgoda—1113113M. Zaskodny—71150
WAug 7 · 19:40R. Niezgoda—1111113M. Zaskodny—8740
LAug 6 · 18:10R. Niezgoda—9111111102M. Zaskodny—111376123
WAug 2 · 06:15R. Niezgoda—1111113M. Zaskodny—7690
WAug 1 · 06:45R. Niezgoda—11611113M. Zaskodny—711641
WJul 28 · 17:45R. Niezgoda—1212118113M. Zaskodny—101431162
WJul 25 · 08:10R. Niezgoda—6101111113M. Zaskodny—11123892
R. Niezgoda10
WSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 19:10M. Zaskodny3.406860R. Niezgoda1.301111113WSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 8 · 17:10R. Niezgoda2.291111113F. Sikora1.516890WSep 8 · 15:40F. Sikora1.674790R. Niezgoda2.101111113WSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.6148111492J. Rak2.201111712113LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113
M. Zaskodny10
WSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 19:10M. Zaskodny3.406860R. Niezgoda1.301111113WSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113WSep 1 · 16:40D. Skulina2.63911118102M. Zaskodny1.44119511123LSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113LSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny2.10117881F. Chaloupka1.6781111113LSep 1 · 13:40M. Zaskodny1.671015111592D. Skulina2.101213817113WSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170LAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181
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