TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097977
Played Sep 8Finished
Marek Zaskodny
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811611––––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Zaskodny above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 79.4%
53 points played in total.
H2H Marek Zaskodny 7–21 Rostislav Niezgoda Marek Zaskodny has won 7 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-21 in 28
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 14 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaskodny 1596 vs Niezgoda 1816
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaskodny 40% vs Niezgoda 80%
Niezgoda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaskodny 50% vs Niezgoda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaskodny +2 · Niezgoda +4
Niezgoda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaskodny form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaskodny 3.40 / Niezgoda 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Niezgoda)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13097977
Zaskodny3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 49 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Niezgoda1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 158 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it96% 87 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it80% 116 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZaskodny2wins
AwayNiezgoda8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaskodny50%2 of 4
AwayNiezgoda100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaskodny4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S2Zaskodny4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S3Zaskodny1Niezgoda9n = 10Niezgoda took 9 of 10
S4Zaskodny1Niezgoda5n = 6Niezgoda took 5 of 6
S5Zaskodny2Niezgoda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZaskodnyNiezgodaZ − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.842.0−8.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaskodnyNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 281 vs 295 / 50641.6%58.3%117 / 281 vs 295 / 506Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaZaskodny 3.40/Niezgoda 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 13:40M. Zaskodny—137941R. Niezgoda—111111113
LAug 13 · 18:40M. Zaskodny—91480R. Niezgoda—1116113
LAug 12 · 17:40M. Zaskodny—71150R. Niezgoda—1113113
LAug 7 · 19:40M. Zaskodny—8740R. Niezgoda—1111113
WAug 6 · 18:10M. Zaskodny—111376123R. Niezgoda—9111111102
LAug 2 · 06:15M. Zaskodny—7690R. Niezgoda—1111113
LAug 1 · 06:45M. Zaskodny—711641R. Niezgoda—11611113
LJul 28 · 17:45M. Zaskodny—101431162R. Niezgoda—1212118113
LJul 25 · 08:10M. Zaskodny—11123892R. Niezgoda—6101111113
WJul 21 · 16:10M. Zaskodny—116126113R. Niezgoda—711101142
M. Zaskodny10
WSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113WSep 1 · 16:40D. Skulina2.63911118102M. Zaskodny1.44119511123LSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113LSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny2.10117881F. Chaloupka1.6781111113LSep 1 · 13:40M. Zaskodny1.671015111592D. Skulina2.101213817113WSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170LAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181WAug 31 · 16:45M. Zaskodny1.531111113J. Gembala2.388130WAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981
R. Niezgoda10
WSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 8 · 17:10R. Niezgoda2.291111113F. Sikora1.516890WSep 8 · 15:40F. Sikora1.674790R. Niezgoda2.101111113WSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.6148111492J. Rak2.201111712113LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113
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