TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13053635
Played Aug 31Finished
Marek Zaskodny
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118111113––––
Jan Gembala
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Zaskodny above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 45 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Jan Gembala at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Marek Zaskodny 9–8 Jan Gembala Jan Gembala has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zaskodny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaskodny 1585 vs Gembala 1606
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaskodny 40% vs Gembala 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaskodny 30% vs Gembala 60%
Gembala
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaskodny +2 · Gembala -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zaskodny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaskodny form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaskodny 1.53 / Gembala 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Gembala)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13053635
Zaskodny1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 26 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Gembala2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 31 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZaskodny6wins
AwayGembala4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZaskodny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaskodny100%5 of 5
AwayGembala80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaskodny5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S2Zaskodny7Gembala3n = 10Zaskodny took 7 of 10
S3Zaskodny3Gembala7n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S4Zaskodny4Gembala1n = 5Zaskodny took 4 of 5
S5Zaskodny2Gembala1n = 3Zaskodny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZaskodnyGembalaZ − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.633.7+2.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaskodnyGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 276 vs 192 / 35841.7%53.6%115 / 276 vs 192 / 358Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZaskodnyZaskodny 1.53/Gembala 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Zaskodny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zaskodny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny—1111113J. Gembala—6950
WAug 31 · 16:45M. Zaskodny—1111113J. Gembala—8130
WJul 30 · 20:10M. Zaskodny—1581011113J. Gembala—131112892
WJul 26 · 15:10M. Zaskodny—811711113J. Gembala—11411352
WJul 13 · 20:40M. Zaskodny—1111113J. Gembala—8590
LJul 13 · 20:10M. Zaskodny—77110J. Gembala—1111133
LJun 9 · 16:15M. Zaskodny—51111192J. Gembala—118116113
LMay 24 · 12:40M. Zaskodny—911471J. Gembala—11811113
WMay 24 · 09:40M. Zaskodny—11117113J. Gembala—971181
LApr 6 · 06:40M. Zaskodny—89140J. Gembala—1111163
M. Zaskodny10
WSep 1 · 16:40D. Skulina2.63911118102M. Zaskodny1.44119511123LSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113LSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny2.10117881F. Chaloupka1.6781111113LSep 1 · 13:40M. Zaskodny1.671015111592D. Skulina2.101213817113WSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170LAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181WAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981WAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.2591311232P. Vicherek1.571111911113
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113
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