TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106218
Played Sep 9Finished
David Sarganek
Home
2.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711911––––
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.48
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 60.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 42–52 Rostislav Niezgoda David Sarganek has won 42 of their 94 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sarganek beat Niezgoda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (61%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-52 in 94
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 10 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1569 vs Niezgoda 1838
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 269 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Niezgoda 80%
Niezgoda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 30% vs Niezgoda 90%
Niezgoda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -1 · Niezgoda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 2.35 / Niezgoda 1.48
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Niezgoda)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13106218
Sarganek2.35
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Niezgoda1.48
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 163 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it96% 88 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it80% 117 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek4wins
AwayNiezgoda6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek40%2 of 5
AwayNiezgoda60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek5Niezgoda5n = 10split evenly
S2Sarganek2Niezgoda8n = 10Niezgoda took 8 of 10
S3Sarganek4Niezgoda6n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S4Sarganek5Niezgoda3n = 8Sarganek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekNiezgodaS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.038.7−0.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 478 vs 300 / 51251.9%58.6%248 / 478 vs 300 / 512Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaSarganek 2.35/Niezgoda 1.48
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.6%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 18:45D. Sarganek—91211113R. Niezgoda—1110851
LSep 8 · 18:10D. Sarganek—119761R. Niezgoda—61111113
WSep 6 · 12:39D. Sarganek—91111113R. Niezgoda—119361
LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek—111081192R. Niezgoda—612117113
LAug 24 · 14:40D. Sarganek—119291R. Niezgoda—91111113
WAug 23 · 10:15D. Sarganek—12712113R. Niezgoda—10111091
LAug 20 · 18:45D. Sarganek—991181R. Niezgoda—11119113
WAug 17 · 13:40D. Sarganek—136411113R. Niezgoda—111111182
LAug 5 · 16:43D. Sarganek—97110R. Niezgoda—1111133
LAug 5 · 15:40D. Sarganek—912100R. Niezgoda—1114123
D. Sarganek10
LSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113LSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113
R. Niezgoda10
WSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730LSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WSep 8 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.2241111113M. Zaskodny4.00113571WSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 19:10M. Zaskodny3.406860R. Niezgoda1.301111113WSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 8 · 17:10R. Niezgoda2.291111113F. Sikora1.516890LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113
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