TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13100819
Played Sep 8Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1173111181210––
David Sarganek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntonin Baros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 73 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Antonin Baros at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 23–37 David Sarganek Antonin Baros has won 23 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-37 in 60
Sarganek
Wrong
gap of 14 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1670 vs Sarganek 1577
Baros
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 20% vs Sarganek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 50% vs Sarganek 20%
Baros
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -4 · Sarganek -2
Baros
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.38 / Sarganek 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Sarganek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13100819
Baros2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Sarganek1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 72 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it86% 47 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros3wins
AwaySarganek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros50%3 of 6
AwaySarganek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros6Sarganek4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S2Baros4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S3Baros4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S4Baros1Sarganek2n = 3Sarganek took 2 of 3
S5Baros0Sarganek3n = 3Sarganek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosSarganekB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.534.5−3.0per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 390 vs 246 / 47446.7%51.9%182 / 390 vs 246 / 474Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekBaros 2.38/Sarganek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros—1211113D. Sarganek—10880
WAug 20 · 20:15A. Baros—1111143D. Sarganek—67120
LAug 18 · 21:14A. Baros—10560D. Sarganek—1211113
LAug 18 · 19:15A. Baros—11611892D. Sarganek—811411113
WJul 22 · 20:15A. Baros—1111123D. Sarganek—37100
LJul 21 · 19:10A. Baros—9650D. Sarganek—1111113
LJul 18 · 19:15A. Baros—8760D. Sarganek—1111113
LJul 15 · 20:10A. Baros—6660D. Sarganek—1111113
LJul 2 · 17:40A. Baros—111112552D. Sarganek—591411113
LJun 23 · 18:10A. Baros—11741192D. Sarganek—811115113
A. Baros10
LSep 8 · 19:40A. Baros2.6311165822R. Niezgoda1.449141111113WSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 17:40A. Baros1.57861131M. Zaskodny2.2511114113LSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113LSep 7 · 15:40F. Sikora1.531111113A. Baros2.385880WSep 7 · 15:10P. Vicherek1.6711711792A. Baros2.10411411113WSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872
D. Sarganek10
LSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991LAug 24 · 16:39M. Zaskodny1.9191111113D. Sarganek1.80119981LAug 24 · 16:10D. Sarganek1.737490M. Zaskodny2.001111113LAug 24 · 14:40R. Niezgoda1.6191111113D. Sarganek2.20119291
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