TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091538
Played Sep 7Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181311115––––
Jonas Rak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJonas Rak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 59 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jonas Rak at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 3–3 Jonas Rak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1666 vs Rak 1720
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 70% vs Rak 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +2 · Rak +4
Rak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.20 / Rak 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Rak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13091538
Baros2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Rak1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 24 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 18 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBaros3wins
AwayRak3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros66.7%2 of 3
AwayRak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S2Baros3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S3Baros4Rak2n = 6Baros took 4 of 6
S4Baros2Rak4n = 6Rak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBarosRakB − RBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.542.3−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosRakBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 383 vs 58 / 11246.7%51.8%179 / 383 vs 58 / 112Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakBaros 2.20/Rak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 17 · 15:10A. Baros—101112742J. Rak—1251011113
LJul 9 · 14:40A. Baros—119421J. Rak—91111113
WJun 19 · 14:10A. Baros—8111311113J. Rak—115111372
LMar 20 · 18:20A. Baros—5812131J. Rak—111110153
WMar 20 · 15:45A. Baros—11211113J. Rak—511961
WFeb 13 · 14:45A. Baros—111111133J. Rak—8613111
A. Baros10
WAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872WAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113LAug 26 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.611111133A. Baros2.2069110LAug 26 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.4411411113A. Baros2.63811861WAug 26 · 19:15A. Vitasek1.8011712101A. Baros1.9181114123WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292WAug 20 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.53112761A. Baros2.3891111113WAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.4067120A. Baros2.751111143
J. Rak10
WSep 7 · 14:40F. Sikora1.575121171J. Rak2.2511146113WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113
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