TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103377
Played Sep 9Finished
David Sarganek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811511––––
Rene Kowal
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held David Sarganek at 58.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 23–22 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 22 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:58What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-22 in 45
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1597 vs Kowal 1585
Sarganek
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Kowal 20%
Sarganek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 30% vs Kowal 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek +2 · Kowal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.61 / Kowal 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Sarganek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13103377
Sarganek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 72 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it86% 47 of 55
Kowal2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog51% won 38 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek7wins
AwayKowal3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek75%6 of 8
AwayKowaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek8Kowal2n = 10Sarganek took 8 of 10
S2Sarganek6Kowal4n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S3Sarganek6Kowal4n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S4Sarganek4Kowal2n = 6Sarganek took 4 of 6
S5Sarganek2Kowal2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekKowalS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.5+3.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 477 vs 141 / 28252%50%248 / 477 vs 141 / 282Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekSarganek 1.61/Kowal 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 15:40D. Sarganek—11112113R. Kowal—591161
WJul 22 · 18:45D. Sarganek—1111113R. Kowal—9830
WJul 21 · 19:40D. Sarganek—116414113R. Kowal—311111242
WJul 15 · 21:05D. Sarganek—1111113R. Kowal—7980
LJul 15 · 18:40D. Sarganek—1191091R. Kowal—31112113
WJul 13 · 17:20D. Sarganek—1111113R. Kowal—6940
LJul 13 · 14:10D. Sarganek—88131452R. Kowal—11111112113
WJul 9 · 17:40D. Sarganek—711128123R. Kowal—1131011102
LJul 2 · 19:40D. Sarganek—11261132R. Kowal—811117113
WJun 30 · 21:15D. Sarganek—1111113R. Kowal—9780
D. Sarganek10
WSep 9 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.611110851D. Sarganek2.2091211113WSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113LSep 8 · 20:40A. Baros2.3811311123D. Sarganek1.537118101LSep 8 · 20:10D. Sarganek2.203790M. Zaskodny1.611111113LSep 8 · 18:40A. Baros2.501211113D. Sarganek1.5010880LSep 8 · 18:10R. Niezgoda1.6161111113D. Sarganek2.20119761WSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860LSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991
R. Kowal10
LSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek2.0011911113R. Kowal1.73911591LSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191
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