TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106219
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911115119––
Rene Kowal
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 19–24 Rene Kowal Petr Vicherek has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Vicherek beat Kowal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kowal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Kowal
Wrong
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1673 vs Kowal 1613
Vicherek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 60% vs Kowal 40%
Vicherek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 50% vs Kowal 30%
Vicherek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek -1 · Kowal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 2.00 / Kowal 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kowal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13106219
Vicherek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 40
Kowal1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 47 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek6wins
AwayKowal4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVicherek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek80%4 of 5
AwayKowal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek5Kowal4n = 9Vicherek took 5 of 9
S2Vicherek6Kowal3n = 9Vicherek took 6 of 9
S3Vicherek3Kowal6n = 9Kowal took 6 of 9
S4Vicherek3Kowal3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekKowalV − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match34.436.2−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 355 vs 142 / 28346.8%50.2%166 / 355 vs 142 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalVicherek 2.00/Kowal 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 9 · 19:15P. Vicherek—11118113R. Kowal—861171
LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek—8880R. Kowal—1111113
WAug 31 · 19:15P. Vicherek—1111123R. Kowal—67100
LAug 10 · 19:10P. Vicherek—11116922R. Kowal—961111113
WJul 22 · 19:45P. Vicherek—11118113R. Kowal—691181
WJul 15 · 19:40P. Vicherek—11411133R. Kowal—7117111
LJul 9 · 21:10P. Vicherek—7860R. Kowal—1111113
LJul 9 · 19:10P. Vicherek—811431R. Kowal—11911113
WJun 16 · 18:10P. Vicherek—811114113R. Kowal—11881172
P. Vicherek10
LSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730WSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113WSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960WSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 13:40F. Sikora1.801111113P. Vicherek1.917650WSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113WSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113LSep 7 · 15:10P. Vicherek1.6711711792A. Baros2.10411411113
R. Kowal10
WSep 9 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.615850R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 9 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73861171P. Vicherek2.0011118113LSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.