TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103830
Played Sep 9Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611118711––
Petr Vicherek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRene Kowal above · Petr Vicherek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-10
Point 69 set 4, 4-10 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.1%
69 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Rene Kowal 23–18 Petr Vicherek Petr Vicherek has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kowal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Kowal
Wrong
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1594 vs Vicherek 1672
Vicherek
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 20% vs Vicherek 40%
Vicherek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 20% vs Vicherek 50%
Vicherek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal -1 · Vicherek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.73 / Vicherek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kowal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13103830
Kowal1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 47 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Vicherek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowal5wins
AwayVicherek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal80%4 of 5
AwayVicherek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal5Vicherek4n = 9Kowal took 5 of 9
S2Kowal4Vicherek5n = 9Vicherek took 5 of 9
S3Kowal5Vicherek4n = 9Kowal took 5 of 9
S4Kowal3Vicherek3n = 6split evenly
S5Kowal2Vicherek1n = 3Kowal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalVicherekK − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.633.9+3.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalVicherekBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 281 vs 165 / 35350.2%46.7%141 / 281 vs 165 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalKowal 1.73/Vicherek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal—67100P. Vicherek—1111123
WAug 10 · 19:10R. Kowal—961111113P. Vicherek—11116922
LJul 22 · 19:45R. Kowal—691181P. Vicherek—11118113
LJul 15 · 19:40R. Kowal—7117111P. Vicherek—11411133
WJul 9 · 21:10R. Kowal—1111113P. Vicherek—7860
WJul 9 · 19:10R. Kowal—11911113P. Vicherek—811431
LJun 16 · 18:10R. Kowal—11881172P. Vicherek—811114113
WJun 10 · 18:10R. Kowal—1111113P. Vicherek—6470
WJun 8 · 19:40R. Kowal—111174113P. Vicherek—85111182
R. Kowal10
LSep 9 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5011118113R. Kowal2.50651171WAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros2.1011117113R. Kowal1.67961141LAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 17:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38681181LAug 26 · 20:45R. Kowal1.531111641A. Vitasek2.3813811113WAug 26 · 20:15R. Kowal1.8391111113A. Vitasek1.83116861LAug 26 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.5311119113R. Kowal2.38941191LAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros2.101181111113R. Kowal1.6791113292LAug 10 · 21:10R. Niezgoda1.5341111113R. Kowal2.38112541
P. Vicherek10
LSep 9 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111113P. Vicherek2.009730LSep 9 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.9110890D. Sarganek1.801211113WSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960WSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 13:40F. Sikora1.801111113P. Vicherek1.917650WSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113WSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123
Upcoming Matches
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