TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098079
Played Sep 8Finished
Jonas Rak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11136111012––––
Petr Vicherek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJonas Rak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJonas Rak above · Petr Vicherek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 63 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jonas Rak at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 4–7 Petr Vicherek Jonas Rak has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Vicherek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1692 vs Vicherek 1662
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Vicherek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 60% vs Vicherek 30%
Rak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Vicherek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vicherek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.80 / Vicherek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13098079
Rak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 24 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 18 of 24
Vicherek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak3wins
AwayVicherek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVicherek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVicherek77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak1Vicherek9n = 10Vicherek took 9 of 10
S2Rak6Vicherek4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak3Vicherek7n = 10Vicherek took 7 of 10
S4Rak3Vicherek4n = 7Vicherek took 4 of 7
S5Rak2Vicherek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakVicherekR − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.941.6−5.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakVicherekBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 118 vs 163 / 35050.9%46.6%60 / 118 vs 163 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.80/Vicherek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak—91191152P. Vicherek—118117113
WSep 3 · 16:10J. Rak—5121110113P. Vicherek—111091262
LAug 31 · 17:15J. Rak—129111182P. Vicherek—141177113
LAug 31 · 15:45J. Rak—211641P. Vicherek—11811113
LAug 25 · 14:15J. Rak—10960P. Vicherek—1211113
LJul 17 · 15:40J. Rak—5940P. Vicherek—1111113
WJul 12 · 06:40J. Rak—71411143P. Vicherek—11124121
WJun 22 · 14:15J. Rak—111179123P. Vicherek—791111102
LJun 19 · 15:10J. Rak—6830P. Vicherek—1111113
LMar 6 · 18:14J. Rak—911961P. Vicherek—11911113
J. Rak10
LSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960LSep 8 · 14:40F. Sikora1.5371111123J. Rak2.381169101WSep 8 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.6148111492J. Rak2.201111712113LSep 7 · 16:48J. Rak2.205970F. Sikora1.611111113LSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113WSep 7 · 14:40F. Sikora1.575121171J. Rak2.2511146113LSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113
P. Vicherek10
WSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960LSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 13:40F. Sikora1.801111113P. Vicherek1.917650WSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113WSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113LSep 7 · 15:10P. Vicherek1.6711711792A. Baros2.10411411113WSep 7 · 13:40F. Sikora1.7312116582P. Vicherek2.001091111113LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590
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