TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099667
Played Sep 8Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111119116––––
Jonas Rak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:38 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 62.4%
49 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 8–4 Jonas Rak Jonas Rak has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Vicherek beat Rak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vicherek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Vicherek
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1677 vs Rak 1677
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 60% vs Rak 20%
Vicherek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 40% vs Rak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek +1 · Rak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.80 / Rak 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rak)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13099667
Vicherek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 47 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Rak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 26 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back39% 14 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek7wins
AwayRak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVicherek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek77.8%7 of 9
AwayRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek9Rak1n = 10Vicherek took 9 of 10
S2Vicherek5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S3Vicherek7Rak3n = 10Vicherek took 7 of 10
S4Vicherek3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S5Vicherek2Rak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekRakV − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.035.1+5.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekRakBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 351 vs 60 / 11946.7%50.4%164 / 351 vs 60 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakVicherek 1.80/Rak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:10P. Vicherek—1311123J. Rak—116100
WSep 7 · 16:10P. Vicherek—118117113J. Rak—91191152
LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek—111091262J. Rak—5121110113
WAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek—141177113J. Rak—129111182
WAug 31 · 15:45P. Vicherek—11811113J. Rak—211641
WAug 25 · 14:15P. Vicherek—1211113J. Rak—10960
WJul 17 · 15:40P. Vicherek—1111113J. Rak—5940
LJul 12 · 06:40P. Vicherek—11124121J. Rak—71411143
LJun 22 · 14:15P. Vicherek—791111102J. Rak—111179123
WJun 19 · 15:10P. Vicherek—1111113J. Rak—6830
P. Vicherek10
WSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 15:10P. Vicherek2.0013126362R. Niezgoda1.7311101111113LSep 8 · 13:40F. Sikora1.801111113P. Vicherek1.917650WSep 7 · 17:18A. Baros2.00119561P. Vicherek1.7391111113WSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113LSep 7 · 15:10P. Vicherek1.6711711792A. Baros2.10411411113WSep 7 · 13:40F. Sikora1.7312116582P. Vicherek2.001091111113LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590
J. Rak10
LSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 14:40F. Sikora1.5371111123J. Rak2.381169101WSep 8 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.6148111492J. Rak2.201111712113LSep 7 · 16:48J. Rak2.205970F. Sikora1.611111113LSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113WSep 7 · 14:40F. Sikora1.575121171J. Rak2.2511146113LSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113
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