TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131764
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Grmela
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412911811711––
Tomas Krenek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Grmela above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 83 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Krenek at 63.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Grmela 1–3 Tomas Krenek Tomas Grmela has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:25What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Krenek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grmela 1587 vs Krenek 1611
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grmela 40% vs Krenek 80%
Krenek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grmela 40% vs Krenek 80%
Krenek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grmela +2 · Krenek +3
Krenek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krenek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrmela 2.25 / Krenek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Krenek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13131764
Grmela2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 13 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Krenek1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 111 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 76 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGrmela1wins
AwayKrenek3wins
Krenek leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrmelan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKrenek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grmela1Krenek3n = 4Krenek took 3 of 4
S2Grmela2Krenek2n = 4split evenly
S3Grmela2Krenek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricGrmelaKrenekG − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match31.036.2−5.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrmelaKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 50 vs 461 / 91444%50.4%22 / 50 vs 461 / 914Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekGrmela 2.25/Krenek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 27 · 14:15T. Grmela34971261T. Krenek43111110113
WAug 21 · 17:10T. Grmela371114123T. Krenek30812100
LAug 21 · 14:15T. Grmela35911961T. Krenek3911611113
LAug 21 · 09:45T. Grmela187470T. Krenek331111113
T. Grmela10
WSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113WSep 15 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.5711119792T. Grmela2.25891111113LSep 10 · 12:49T. Grmela2.20117871J. Skvrna1.6131111113LSep 10 · 12:15T. Grmela2.0099111192L. Slavik1.73111165113LSep 10 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.6711811113T. Grmela2.10611541WSep 10 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.57117591T. Grmela2.2581111113WSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171LSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960LSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113
T. Krenek10
WSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek1.9111116113J. Krupnik1.80641151WSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 13:05T. Krenek2.001111118123J. Skvrna1.71813611102LSep 13 · 12:10T. Krenek1.673960E. Precek2.101111113WSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.8311116962T. Krenek1.83711111113WSep 13 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.801061171T. Krenek1.9112114113WSep 13 · 09:10T. Krenek2.1011114113F. Chaloupka1.65471161LSep 13 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.8011814113T. Krenek1.915111221WSep 13 · 07:10T. Krenek1.9113118113F. Chaloupka1.801171171WSep 13 · 05:40J. Gembala1.5712710101T. Krenek2.25101112123
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