TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124788
Played Sep 13Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11811131168111210
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.71
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 33–44 Jan Skvrna Tomas Krenek has won 33 of their 77 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Krenek beat Skvrna 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-44 in 77
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 11 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1570 vs Skvrna 1709
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 60% vs Skvrna 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 50% vs Skvrna 70%
Skvrna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 2.00 / Skvrna 1.71
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13124788
Krenek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 96 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back41% 41 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Skvrna1.71
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 223 of 378
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 155 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkvrna71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S2Krenek6Skvrna4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Krenek7Skvrna3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S4Krenek3Skvrna5n = 8Skvrna took 5 of 8
S5Krenek1Skvrna3n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekSkvrnaK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.8−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 911 vs 467 / 80450.3%58.1%458 / 911 vs 467 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaKrenek 2.00/Skvrna 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 13:05T. Krenek29124581J. Skvrna43101111113
LSep 8 · 11:40T. Krenek50811129102J. Skvrna511171011123
WSep 6 · 11:45T. Krenek341111123J. Skvrna2578100
LAug 31 · 11:40T. Krenek44101411722J. Skvrna551212911113
LAug 27 · 17:13T. Krenek50911101192J. Skvrna45113128113
LAug 27 · 15:45T. Krenek388911101J. Skvrna4011116123
LAug 25 · 11:40T. Krenek217950J. Skvrna331111113
WAug 16 · 15:45T. Krenek5091118123J. Skvrna4611916101
WAug 15 · 13:10T. Krenek4481114113J. Skvrna281141211
WAug 15 · 10:40T. Krenek47119115113J. Skvrna4291151162
T. Krenek10
LSep 13 · 12:10T. Krenek1.673960E. Precek2.101111113WSep 13 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.8311116962T. Krenek1.83711111113WSep 13 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.801061171T. Krenek1.9112114113WSep 13 · 09:10T. Krenek2.1011114113F. Chaloupka1.65471161LSep 13 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.8011814113T. Krenek1.915111221WSep 13 · 07:10T. Krenek1.9113118113F. Chaloupka1.801171171WSep 13 · 05:40J. Gembala1.5712710101T. Krenek2.25101112123LSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891
J. Skvrna10
WSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.0011811762J. Skvrna1.73711811113WSep 13 · 11:10E. Precek2.25841181J. Skvrna1.5711117113LSep 13 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.801061171T. Krenek1.9112114113LSep 10 · 17:20J. Skvrna1.538970J. Pribyl2.381111113WSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113WSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113WSep 10 · 14:15J. Skvrna1.6711117143J. Pribyl2.108911121WSep 10 · 12:49T. Grmela2.20117871J. Skvrna1.6131111113WSep 10 · 11:45B. Mrowetz2.0011118682J. Skvrna1.73731111113LSep 10 · 11:15L. Slavik3.50641111113J. Skvrna1.2811118272
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