TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124100
Played Sep 13Finished
Tomas Krenek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117411116––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 15–13 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krenek beat Chaloupka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Chaloupka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Krenek
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1573 vs Chaloupka 1591
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 40% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 20% vs Chaloupka 50%
Chaloupka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek -1 · Chaloupka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 2.10 / Chaloupka 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Chaloupka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13124100
Krenek2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 96 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back41% 41 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Chaloupka1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 93 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek4wins
AwayChaloupka6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek42.9%3 of 7
AwayChaloupka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek7Chaloupka3n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S2Krenek4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S3Krenek3Chaloupka7n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S4Krenek4Chaloupka5n = 9Chaloupka took 5 of 9
S5Krenek2Chaloupka3n = 5Chaloupka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekChaloupkaK − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.8−1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 908 vs 268 / 51750.2%51.8%456 / 908 vs 268 / 517Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaKrenek 2.10/Chaloupka 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 09:10T. Krenek3711114113F. Chaloupka28471161
WSep 13 · 07:10T. Krenek4313118113F. Chaloupka361171171
WAug 24 · 13:13T. Krenek496111110113F. Chaloupka4511791262
LAug 24 · 11:40T. Krenek259790F. Chaloupka331111113
LAug 15 · 12:10T. Krenek28114491F. Chaloupka3851111113
LJul 11 · 13:15T. Krenek3711331192F. Chaloupka49711119113
LJul 11 · 11:15T. Krenek46101111592F. Chaloupka47127611113
LJul 8 · 14:10T. Krenek481161110102F. Chaloupka50911612123
WMay 4 · 15:15T. Krenek501161011123F. Chaloupka46911124102
LMay 2 · 15:40T. Krenek381212771F. Chaloupka46101411113
T. Krenek10
LSep 13 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.8011814113T. Krenek1.915111221WSep 13 · 07:10T. Krenek1.9113118113F. Chaloupka1.801171171WSep 13 · 05:40J. Gembala1.5712710101T. Krenek2.25101112123LSep 11 · 12:33M. Macurak1.831111116113T. Krenek1.8361381192LSep 11 · 12:10T. Krenek1.737650D. Pawlik2.001111113LSep 11 · 10:40M. Macurak1.8311411113T. Krenek1.83711891LSep 11 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.91711118113T. Krenek1.8011341152LSep 11 · 08:38J. Krupnik1.8091311113T. Krenek1.911111491LSep 11 · 08:10J. Krupnik2.0016117113T. Krenek1.731441171LSep 11 · 07:10T. Krenek2.107111191J. Gembala1.6711137113
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 13 · 07:40J. Gembala1.67913591F. Chaloupka2.10111111113LSep 13 · 07:10T. Krenek1.9113118113F. Chaloupka1.801171171WSep 13 · 06:10F. Chaloupka1.831311510113J. Skalicky1.83117111282LSep 12 · 08:40F. Chaloupka1.919970J. Skalicky1.801111113WSep 12 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.80591161F. Chaloupka1.9111118113LSep 12 · 07:10F. Chaloupka2.3861191162A. Vitasek1.53117117113LSep 12 · 05:40B. Moravec1.501111113F. Chaloupka2.505380LSep 11 · 21:19F. Chaloupka1.678980D. Skulina2.101111113WSep 11 · 19:45D. Skulina2.3811771412F. Chaloupka1.537111112113WSep 11 · 19:15I. Heuman2.0051121132F. Chaloupka1.73116117113
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