TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122607
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111311511911––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:15 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Gembala at 56.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 12–10 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gembala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Gembala
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1696 vs Chaloupka 1619
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 60% vs Chaloupka 40%
Gembala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 70% vs Chaloupka 40%
Gembala
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +1 · Chaloupka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Gembala) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.67 / Chaloupka 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Gembala)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13122607
Gembala1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 78 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it79% 62 of 79
Chaloupka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 44 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back27% 16 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala5wins
AwayChaloupka5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala80%4 of 5
AwayChaloupka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S2Gembala7Chaloupka3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S3Gembala4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S4Gembala2Chaloupka3n = 5Chaloupka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaChaloupkaG − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.935.5−0.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 378 vs 268 / 51654.8%51.9%207 / 378 vs 268 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.67/Chaloupka 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:40J. Gembala36913591F. Chaloupka44111111113
WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala331111113F. Chaloupka171880
WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala4212118113F. Chaloupka371091171
LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala311121171F. Chaloupka4271113113
LAug 28 · 19:40J. Gembala208930F. Chaloupka331111113
WAug 26 · 15:45J. Gembala331111113F. Chaloupka238690
LAug 16 · 10:10J. Gembala238780F. Chaloupka331111113
WAug 16 · 06:10J. Gembala331111113F. Chaloupka219750
LAug 15 · 12:38J. Gembala4871291282F. Chaloupka5311101110113
WAug 15 · 11:10J. Gembala50412149113F. Chaloupka521110121182
J. Gembala10
WSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881WSep 13 · 06:40J. Gembala1.7311127113J. Skalicky2.009101171LSep 13 · 05:40J. Gembala1.5712710101T. Krenek2.25101112123LSep 11 · 09:10J. Gembala2.0075121172A. Vitasek1.731111106113WSep 11 · 07:40A. Vitasek1.73117671J. Gembala2.0081111113WSep 11 · 07:10T. Krenek2.107111191J. Gembala1.6711137113LSep 11 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6181181152J. Krupnik2.20119116113WSep 8 · 09:10J. Gembala1.63911811113M. Macurak2.0611311482WSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 13 · 06:10F. Chaloupka1.831311510113J. Skalicky1.83117111282LSep 12 · 08:40F. Chaloupka1.919970J. Skalicky1.801111113WSep 12 · 08:10J. Skalicky1.80591161F. Chaloupka1.9111118113LSep 12 · 07:10F. Chaloupka2.3861191162A. Vitasek1.53117117113LSep 12 · 05:40B. Moravec1.501111113F. Chaloupka2.505380LSep 11 · 21:19F. Chaloupka1.678980D. Skulina2.101111113WSep 11 · 19:45D. Skulina2.3811771412F. Chaloupka1.537111112113WSep 11 · 19:15I. Heuman2.0051121132F. Chaloupka1.73116117113LSep 11 · 18:15F. Chaloupka1.67611971K. Kleprlik2.1011911113WSep 11 · 17:15F. Chaloupka2.4011118143B. Moravec1.509911121
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