TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116782
Played Sep 12Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113118––––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 49 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 36–22 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 22 of their 58 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 12h before this match
Chaloupka beat Moravec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-22 in 58
Moravec
Correct
gap of 14 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1724 vs Chaloupka 1622
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Chaloupka 70%
Chaloupka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Chaloupka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.50 / Chaloupka 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Moravec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13116782
Moravec1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 113 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it87% 81 of 93
Chaloupka2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 56 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec6wins
AwayChaloupka4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec80%4 of 5
AwayChaloupka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S3Moravec5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S4Moravec6Chaloupka4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S5Moravec4Chaloupka2n = 6Moravec took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecChaloupkaM − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.941.5+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 449 vs 265 / 50957%52.1%256 / 449 vs 265 / 509Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.50/Chaloupka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 17:15B. Moravec—9911121F. Chaloupka—11118143
LSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec—911681F. Chaloupka—11711113
LSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec—11741192F. Chaloupka—611114113
WSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec—111195113F. Chaloupka—57111162
WSep 6 · 08:53B. Moravec—117114113F. Chaloupka—81151172
LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec—36111172F. Chaloupka—111159113
WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec—831112113F. Chaloupka—111181032
WAug 21 · 15:40B. Moravec—711811113F. Chaloupka—11711782
WAug 16 · 06:40B. Moravec—111112113F. Chaloupka—961491
WAug 13 · 13:40B. Moravec—111211113F. Chaloupka—814751
B. Moravec10
LSep 12 · 07:40B. Moravec2.259920A. Vitasek1.571111113WSep 12 · 06:40B. Moravec1.6141111113J. Skalicky2.20117541LSep 11 · 17:15F. Chaloupka2.4011118143B. Moravec1.509911121WSep 11 · 15:45B. Moravec1.8011118113J. Pribyl1.91861161WSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771LSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113LSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113LSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133WSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 12 · 07:10F. Chaloupka2.3861191162A. Vitasek1.53117117113LSep 11 · 21:19F. Chaloupka1.678980D. Skulina2.101111113WSep 11 · 19:45D. Skulina2.3811771412F. Chaloupka1.537111112113WSep 11 · 19:15I. Heuman2.0051121132F. Chaloupka1.73116117113LSep 11 · 18:15F. Chaloupka1.67611971K. Kleprlik2.1011911113WSep 11 · 17:15F. Chaloupka2.4011118143B. Moravec1.509911121WSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133WSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113WSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162
Upcoming Matches
B. Moravec
Nothing scheduled
F. Chaloupka
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