TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131113
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118119911711911
Tomas Grmela
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Grmela to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Tomas Grmela below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Grmela at 56.4%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 3–1 Tomas Grmela Tomas Grmela has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krupnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1573 vs Grmela 1587
Grmela
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 20% vs Grmela 40%
Grmela
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 30% vs Grmela 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -2 · Grmela -3
Grmela
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.57 / Grmela 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Krupnik)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13131113
Krupnik1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 136 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Grmela2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 13 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKrupnik3wins
AwayGrmela1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKrupnik leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik2Grmela2n = 4split evenly
S2Krupnik3Grmela1n = 4Krupnik took 3 of 4
S3Krupnik3Grmela1n = 4Krupnik took 3 of 4
S4Krupnik2Grmela2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKrupnikGrmelaK − GBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match45.240.8+4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikGrmelaBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 882 vs 22 / 5051.4%44%453 / 882 vs 22 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.235.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.57/Grmela 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grmela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 15 · 06:15J. Krupnik4711119792T. Grmela50891111113
WSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik4261213113T. Grmela3911101171
WAug 27 · 18:15J. Krupnik44101111123T. Grmela361259101
WAug 3 · 06:40J. Krupnik48118117113T. Grmela3851151162
J. Krupnik10
LSep 14 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.67134781T. Kindl2.10111111113LSep 14 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9110101111102J. Skvrna1.80121296123WSep 14 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.801111113T. Kindl1.917470LSep 14 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.8311511772R. Benes1.83411911113LSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik1.53131111882D. Jr2.38154411113LSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak1.7311119113J. Krupnik2.00741141WSep 13 · 15:10D. Jr2.20681161J. Krupnik1.6111116113WSep 13 · 14:10J. Krupnik1.66111112113R. Benes2.05691491LSep 13 · 12:35J. Krupnik2.059911101E. Precek1.6811115123LSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.0011811762J. Skvrna1.73711811113
T. Grmela10
WSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113LSep 10 · 12:49T. Grmela2.20117871J. Skvrna1.6131111113LSep 10 · 12:15T. Grmela2.0099111192L. Slavik1.73111165113LSep 10 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.6711811113T. Grmela2.10611541WSep 10 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.57117591T. Grmela2.2581111113WSep 10 · 08:50R. Benes1.8084100T. Grmela1.911111123LSep 10 · 07:45J. Krupnik1.7361213113T. Grmela2.0011101171LSep 10 · 07:15D. Pawlik1.731111113T. Grmela2.005960LSep 10 · 06:15T. Grmela1.73561781R. Benes2.00111115113WAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113
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