TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128751
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Sopko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113118611––
Michal Regner
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sopko above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 80 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Regner at 61.2%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sopko 1–4 Michal Regner Martin Sopko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Regner
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sopko 1620 vs Regner 1699
Regner
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sopko 40% vs Regner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sopko 60% vs Regner 40%
Sopko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sopko -3 · Regner -1
Sopko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSopko 2.38 / Regner 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Regner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128751
Sopko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Regner1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 87 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it67% 66 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSopko1wins
AwayRegner4wins
Regner leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSopkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayRegner80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sopko0Regner5n = 5Regner took 5 of 5
S2Sopko2Regner3n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
S3Sopko2Regner3n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
S4Sopko1Regner2n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSopkoRegnerS − RBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match32.037.0−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSopkoRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 356 vs 510 / 106046.9%48.1%167 / 356 vs 510 / 1060Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerSopko 2.38/Regner 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 13 · 02:30M. Sopko46131111113M. Regner38156891
LDec 25 · 04:00M. Sopko33811591M. Regner3911611113
LDec 25 · 24:30M. Sopko2266100M. Regner341111123
LSep 4 · 01:00M. Sopko33691171M. Regner3911116113
LAug 3 · 19:00M. Sopko2669110M. Regner351111133
M. Sopko10
WSep 15 · 23:30M. Sopko1.2891111113M. Chlebecek3.50116791LSep 12 · 03:30S. Kadavy1.7311119113M. Sopko2.00491171LSep 12 · 02:30M. Sopko1.8311711952S. Kadavy1.83511611113LSep 12 · 01:30R. Krejci3.251111113M. Sopko1.338790WSep 12 · 24:00M. Sopko1.731111113V. Cermak2.001860WSep 11 · 23:00P. Pycha2.509511101M. Sopko1.5011113123WSep 9 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.65118641M. Sopko2.1091111113WSep 9 · 02:30M. Sopko1.441111113D. Tuma2.636960WSep 9 · 01:30V. Cermak1.80611581M. Sopko1.9111511113WSep 9 · 24:00M. Sopko1.331111113A. Hlawatschke3.256760
M. Regner10
WSep 16 · 24:30M. Regner1.91111112113M. Chlebecek1.80971461WSep 15 · 23:00M. Regner1.731111113M. Sychra2.006970LSep 13 · 03:00M. Regner1.8310280J. Louda1.831211113WSep 13 · 02:00R. Wagner1.404890M. Regner2.751111113LSep 13 · 24:30M. Regner1.618950R. Rose2.201111113LSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113WSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:00M. Regner1.8311119113M. Sychra1.83881141LSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101
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