TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115422
Played Sep 12Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1816611511711––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:24 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 85 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 66.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 14–32 Sebastian Kasnik Michal Regner has won 14 of their 46 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Regner beat Kasnik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:24What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-32 in 46
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 18 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1721 vs Kasnik 1514
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 207 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 60% vs Kasnik 0%
Regner
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Kasnik 20%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Kasnik -5
Kasnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.38 / Kasnik 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Regner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115422
Regner2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 118 of 263
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 75
Kasnik1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 116 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it72% 93 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner3wins
AwayKasnik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner33.3%1 of 3
AwayKasnik71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Regner6Kasnik4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Regner1Kasnik9n = 10Kasnik took 9 of 10
S4Regner3Kasnik4n = 7Kasnik took 4 of 7
S5Regner2Kasnik1n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerKasnikR − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.037.9−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime509 / 1056 vs 476 / 100748.2%47.3%509 / 1056 vs 476 / 1007Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikRegner 2.38/Kasnik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 03:30M. Regner35811881S. Kasnik4011711113
LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner219390S. Kasnik331111113
WSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner52911611153S. Kasnik48118115132
WSep 3 · 07:30M. Regner331111113S. Kasnik188460
LAug 26 · 13:03M. Regner4481171172S. Kasnik51119119113
LAug 26 · 10:00M. Regner31117761S. Kasnik3961111113
LJun 21 · 06:00M. Regner28116471S. Kasnik4071111113
WJun 18 · 22:30M. Regner50911811113S. Kasnik3511411362
LJun 12 · 24:00M. Regner215790S. Kasnik331111113
LJun 11 · 02:00M. Regner25511451S. Kasnik4211911113
M. Regner10
WSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:00M. Regner1.8311119113M. Sychra1.83881141LSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113WSep 10 · 23:30M. Klement1.80116761M. Regner1.9191111113WSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132
S. Kasnik10
LSep 12 · 13:01M. Sychra1.8571111123S. Kasnik1.851155101LSep 12 · 12:30S. Kasnik2.6311840P. Saleny1.441311113LSep 12 · 11:00S. Kasnik1.738911101M. Sychra2.0011119123LSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711LSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:00M. Klement1.61119114133S. Kasnik2.20911711112LSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.67911451M. Sychra2.1011811113WSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881WSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113
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