TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13112683
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711118118––
Michal Regner
Away
2.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:12 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 60.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 30–13 Michal Regner Michal Regner has won 13 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kasnik beat Regner 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-13 in 43
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 17 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1658 vs Regner 1690
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 80% vs Regner 60%
Kasnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 60% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +4 · Regner -1
Kasnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 1.52 / Regner 2.35
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kasnik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13112683
Kasnik1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 117 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it91% 68 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it71% 95 of 133
Regner2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back24% 31 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik8wins
AwayRegner2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik85.7%6 of 7
AwayRegner33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik7Regner3n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Kasnik4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Kasnik8Regner2n = 10Kasnik took 8 of 10
S4Kasnik5Regner2n = 7Kasnik took 5 of 7
S5Kasnik2Regner1n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikRegnerK − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.933.2+4.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 1006 vs 511 / 106247.6%48.1%479 / 1006 vs 511 / 1062Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikKasnik 1.52/Regner 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.3%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:30S. Kasnik—8460M. Regner—1111113
WAug 26 · 13:03S. Kasnik—119119113M. Regner—81171172
WAug 26 · 10:00S. Kasnik—61111113M. Regner—117761
WJun 21 · 06:00S. Kasnik—71111113M. Regner—116471
LJun 18 · 22:30S. Kasnik—11411362M. Regner—911811113
WJun 12 · 24:00S. Kasnik—1111113M. Regner—5790
WJun 11 · 02:00S. Kasnik—11911113M. Regner—511451
WJun 5 · 01:00S. Kasnik—1271011113M. Regner—101112782
WJun 4 · 06:30S. Kasnik—11411113M. Regner—711881
WMay 28 · 23:30S. Kasnik—1111113M. Regner—9360
S. Kasnik10
WSep 11 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.201161311113M. Klement1.6181115982WSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.7381111113M. Sychra2.00116991WSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113LSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122LSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551WSep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35101111133O. Svacha1.531299111LSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123
M. Regner10
LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113WSep 10 · 23:30M. Klement1.80116761M. Regner1.9191111113WSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132LSep 10 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8371111113M. Regner1.83115491WSep 10 · 02:00M. Skakal1.57111179102M. Regner2.25661111123LSep 10 · 24:30M. Regner1.508613101J. Tazler2.50111111123WSep 9 · 23:00M. Regner1.911115113M. Sychra1.8081390LSep 9 · 22:00M. Pikous1.821311113M. Regner1.8811790WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772
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