TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13106293
Played Sep 9Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1131128112111012
Mark Robin Wagner
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 81 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 59.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 5–3 Mark Robin Wagner Mark Robin Wagner has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Kasnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kasnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1643 vs Wagner 1723
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 60% vs Wagner 40%
Kasnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 60% vs Wagner 40%
Kasnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +1 · Wagner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 1.65 / Wagner 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kasnik)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13106293
Kasnik1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 117 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it72% 95 of 132
Wagner2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 32 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKasnik5wins
AwayWagner3wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKasnik leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik66.7%4 of 6
AwayWagnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik6Wagner2n = 8Kasnik took 6 of 8
S2Kasnik5Wagner3n = 8Kasnik took 5 of 8
S3Kasnik6Wagner2n = 8Kasnik took 6 of 8
S4Kasnik2Wagner2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKasnikWagnerK − WBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match37.231.8+5.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 1001 vs 84 / 15147.7%55.6%477 / 1001 vs 84 / 151Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikKasnik 1.65/Wagner 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 27 · 11:00S. Kasnik—119511112M. Wagner—911118133
WAug 27 · 08:59S. Kasnik—1111113M. Wagner—6670
LAug 27 · 07:00S. Kasnik—981171M. Wagner—11119113
WAug 20 · 02:30S. Kasnik—91111113M. Wagner—116791
WAug 18 · 24:00S. Kasnik—1111113M. Wagner—9750
LAug 17 · 21:28S. Kasnik—1113981M. Wagner—71511113
WAug 17 · 18:30S. Kasnik—1211113M. Wagner—10970
WAug 12 · 02:00S. Kasnik—1111113M. Wagner—2780
S. Kasnik10
WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:30S. Kasnik1.33111189113K. Schopf3.2558111182WSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik2.2581111113M. Klement1.57116581WSep 8 · 08:00M. Klement1.6131110111S. Kasnik2.2011912133WSep 8 · 07:00M. Sychra2.0091111882S. Kasnik1.73112611113WSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.28121011113K. Schopf3.501012781LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110WSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123
Upcoming Matches
S. Kasnik
Sep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik1.67J. Tazler2.10—Sep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35O. Svacha1.53—Sep 10 · 01:00S. Kasnik1.67M. Skakal2.10—Sep 10 · 01:00S. Kasnik—R. Urbaniec——Sep 10 · 02:30S. Kasnik—J. Ruzicka——Sep 10 · 23:00S. Kasnik2.10J. Louda1.67—Sep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.73M. Sychra2.00—Sep 11 · 01:30S. Kasnik1.50M. Regner2.50—Sep 11 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.20M. Klement1.61—
M. Wagner
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.