TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092794
Played Sep 8Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115118811911118
Karel Schopf
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Karel Schopf below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 76.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 6–0 Karel Schopf Karel Schopf has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kasnik beat Schopf 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-0 in 6
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1675 vs Schopf 1516
Kasnik
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 80% vs Schopf 20%
Kasnik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 50% vs Schopf 10%
Kasnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +4 · Schopf +1
Kasnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schopf form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 1.33 / Schopf 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kasnik)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092794
Kasnik1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 113 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it92% 66 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it72% 91 of 127
Schopf3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 26 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKasnik6wins
AwaySchopf0wins
Kasnik leads 6–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik100%5 of 5
AwaySchopfn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik5Schopf1n = 6Kasnik took 5 of 6
S2Kasnik4Schopf2n = 6Kasnik took 4 of 6
S3Kasnik6Schopf0n = 6Kasnik took 6 of 6
S4Kasnik3Schopf0n = 3Kasnik took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKasnikSchopfK − SBasisWins60+6in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.728.5+10.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikSchopfBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 1009 vs 230 / 46447.7%49.6%481 / 1009 vs 230 / 464Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikKasnik 1.33/Schopf 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik—121011113K. Schopf—1012781
WFeb 5 · 01:00S. Kasnik—1111123K. Schopf—85100
WDec 16 · 09:30S. Kasnik—1111153K. Schopf—57130
WOct 6 · 17:00S. Kasnik—91111113K. Schopf—114971
WOct 6 · 15:30S. Kasnik—11611143K. Schopf—4118121
WOct 6 · 24:30S. Kasnik—1111113K. Schopf—2990
S. Kasnik10
LSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik2.2581111113M. Klement1.57116581WSep 8 · 08:00M. Klement1.6131110111S. Kasnik2.2011912133WSep 8 · 07:00M. Sychra2.0091111882S. Kasnik1.73112611113WSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.28121011113K. Schopf3.501012781LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113
K. Schopf10
WSep 8 · 11:30K. Schopf2.631161111113J. Tazler1.4461113562WSep 8 · 08:59M. Sychra2.006550K. Schopf1.731111113LSep 8 · 08:30M. Sychra1.91711156113K. Schopf1.80117131142LSep 8 · 07:30K. Schopf2.635580M. Klement1.441111113LSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.28121011113K. Schopf3.501012781LSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 01:00K. Schopf2.7534100V. Vejvoda1.401111123LSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660LSep 6 · 22:30M. Sychra2.251111123K. Schopf1.5798100LSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113
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