TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092877
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111186111151513
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:37 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 100 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 66.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 13–30 Sebastian Kasnik Michal Regner has won 13 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kasnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-30 in 43
Kasnik
Wrong
gap of 17 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1670 vs Kasnik 1688
Kasnik
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 60% vs Kasnik 100%
Kasnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 50% vs Kasnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +3 · Kasnik +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kasnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.63 / Kasnik 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kasnik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092877
Regner2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kasnik1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 113 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it92% 66 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it72% 91 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner2wins
AwayKasnik8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner33.3%1 of 3
AwayKasnik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Regner6Kasnik4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Regner2Kasnik8n = 10Kasnik took 8 of 10
S4Regner2Kasnik5n = 7Kasnik took 5 of 7
S5Regner1Kasnik2n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerKasnikR − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.237.9−4.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 1057 vs 482 / 101048.1%47.7%508 / 1057 vs 482 / 1010Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikRegner 2.63/Kasnik 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:30M. Regner—1111113S. Kasnik—8460
LAug 26 · 13:03M. Regner—81171172S. Kasnik—119119113
LAug 26 · 10:00M. Regner—117761S. Kasnik—61111113
LJun 21 · 06:00M. Regner—116471S. Kasnik—71111113
WJun 18 · 22:30M. Regner—911811113S. Kasnik—11411362
LJun 12 · 24:00M. Regner—5790S. Kasnik—1111113
LJun 11 · 02:00M. Regner—511451S. Kasnik—11911113
LJun 5 · 01:00M. Regner—101112782S. Kasnik—1271011113
LJun 4 · 06:30M. Regner—711881S. Kasnik—11411113
LMay 28 · 23:30M. Regner—9360S. Kasnik—1111113
M. Regner10
WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772WSep 8 · 12:30M. Regner2.20101211113K. Schopf1.611210551WSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113
S. Kasnik10
WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590WSep 8 · 10:30S. Kasnik1.33111189113K. Schopf3.2558111182WSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik2.2581111113M. Klement1.57116581WSep 8 · 08:00M. Klement1.6131110111S. Kasnik2.2011912133WSep 8 · 07:00M. Sychra2.0091111882S. Kasnik1.73112611113WSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.28121011113K. Schopf3.501012781LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113
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