TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092708
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121210115115––
Karel Schopf
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeKarel Schopf to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Karel Schopf below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Karel Schopf at 57.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 8–20 Karel Schopf Michal Regner has won 8 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:47What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Schopf
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-20 in 28
Schopf
Wrong
gap of 12 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1681 vs Schopf 1517
Regner
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Schopf 40%
Regner
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 50% vs Schopf 20%
Regner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +4 · Schopf +1
Regner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schopf) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schopf form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.20 / Schopf 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Regner)+3.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092708
Regner2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Schopf1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 48 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner2wins
AwaySchopf8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSchopf leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner28.6%2 of 7
AwaySchopf100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner7Schopf3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S2Regner3Schopf7n = 10Schopf took 7 of 10
S3Regner1Schopf9n = 10Schopf took 9 of 10
S4Regner2Schopf7n = 9Schopf took 7 of 9
S5Regner2Schopf2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerSchopfR − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.743.9−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSchopfBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 1057 vs 231 / 46648.1%49.6%508 / 1057 vs 231 / 466Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchopfRegner 2.20/Schopf 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schopf · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner—118511102K. Schopf—511117123
LAug 4 · 11:30M. Regner—118551K. Schopf—61111113
LJul 22 · 03:28M. Regner—115891K. Schopf—71111113
LJul 22 · 01:00M. Regner—111171172K. Schopf—691113113
LJun 23 · 23:00M. Regner—7540K. Schopf—1111113
WJun 7 · 23:00M. Regner—111281113K. Schopf—710111172
LMay 11 · 22:00M. Regner—311651K. Schopf—11411113
LApr 23 · 22:30M. Regner—278991K. Schopf—251111113
WMar 9 · 01:00M. Regner—1113512113K. Schopf—715111062
LFeb 13 · 04:30M. Regner—691181K. Schopf—11118113
M. Regner10
WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772WSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113
K. Schopf10
LSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772WSep 8 · 11:30K. Schopf2.631161111113J. Tazler1.4461113562LSep 8 · 10:30S. Kasnik1.33111189113K. Schopf3.2558111182WSep 8 · 08:59M. Sychra2.006550K. Schopf1.731111113LSep 8 · 08:30M. Sychra1.91711156113K. Schopf1.80117131142LSep 8 · 07:30K. Schopf2.635580M. Klement1.441111113LSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.28121011113K. Schopf3.501012781LSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 01:00K. Schopf2.7534100V. Vejvoda1.401111123WSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123
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