TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105063
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311911––––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 64.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 13–30 Sebastian Kasnik Michal Regner has won 13 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-30 in 43
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 17 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1707 vs Kasnik 1632
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Kasnik 40%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Kasnik 40%
Regner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +3 · Kasnik +2
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kasnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.50 / Kasnik 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kasnik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105063
Regner2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 119 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back24% 31 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 78
Kasnik1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 117 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it91% 68 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it71% 95 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner2wins
AwayKasnik8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner33.3%1 of 3
AwayKasnik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Regner6Kasnik4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Regner2Kasnik8n = 10Kasnik took 8 of 10
S4Regner2Kasnik5n = 7Kasnik took 5 of 7
S5Regner1Kasnik2n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerKasnikR − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.237.9−4.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime511 / 1061 vs 477 / 100448.2%47.5%511 / 1061 vs 477 / 1004Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikRegner 2.50/Kasnik 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:30M. Regner—1111113S. Kasnik—8460
LAug 26 · 13:03M. Regner—81171172S. Kasnik—119119113
LAug 26 · 10:00M. Regner—117761S. Kasnik—61111113
LJun 21 · 06:00M. Regner—116471S. Kasnik—71111113
WJun 18 · 22:30M. Regner—911811113S. Kasnik—11411362
LJun 12 · 24:00M. Regner—5790S. Kasnik—1111113
LJun 11 · 02:00M. Regner—511451S. Kasnik—11911113
LJun 5 · 01:00M. Regner—101112782S. Kasnik—1271011113
LJun 4 · 06:30M. Regner—711881S. Kasnik—11411113
LMay 28 · 23:30M. Regner—9360S. Kasnik—1111113
M. Regner10
WSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113WSep 10 · 23:30M. Klement1.80116761M. Regner1.9191111113WSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132LSep 10 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8371111113M. Regner1.83115491WSep 10 · 02:00M. Skakal1.57111179102M. Regner2.25661111123LSep 10 · 24:30M. Regner1.508613101J. Tazler2.50111111123WSep 9 · 23:00M. Regner1.911115113M. Sychra1.8081390LSep 9 · 22:00M. Pikous1.821311113M. Regner1.8811790WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772WSep 8 · 12:30M. Regner2.20101211113K. Schopf1.611210551
S. Kasnik10
WSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.7381111113M. Sychra2.00116991WSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113LSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122LSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551WSep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35101111133O. Svacha1.531299111LSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132
Upcoming Matches
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S. Kasnik
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