TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13106203
Played Sep 9Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117119––––
Michal Regner
Away
1.88
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Michal Regner at 62.6%
62 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 31–31 Michal Regner Dead even across their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-31 in 62
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1632 vs Regner 1700
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 20% vs Regner 100%
Regner
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 30% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous +1 · Regner +5
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.82 / Regner 1.88
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Regner)+4.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13106203
Pikous1.82
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 113 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it76% 78 of 103
Regner1.88
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 118 of 263
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous6wins
AwayRegner4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous62.5%5 of 8
AwayRegnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous8Regner2n = 10Pikous took 8 of 10
S2Pikous3Regner7n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S3Pikous8Regner2n = 10Pikous took 8 of 10
S4Pikous5Regner3n = 8Pikous took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousRegnerP − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.935.4+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 692 vs 509 / 105752.8%48.2%365 / 692 vs 509 / 1057Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerPikous 1.82/Regner 1.88
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 22:00M. Pikous—81111113M. Regner—115861
WAug 16 · 01:30M. Pikous—111011113M. Regner—812571
WAug 9 · 24:30M. Pikous—1111113M. Regner—8960
WAug 6 · 01:30M. Pikous—1111113M. Regner—4870
WAug 4 · 22:30M. Pikous—111211113M. Regner—714691
LAug 3 · 02:30M. Pikous—114561M. Regner—81111113
LJul 30 · 23:30M. Pikous—1111991M. Regner—61311113
LJul 27 · 23:00M. Pikous—111011972M. Regner—312811113
LJul 22 · 02:30M. Pikous—77111282M. Regner—1111710113
WJul 11 · 07:30M. Pikous—11814123M. Regner—41112101
M. Pikous10
WSep 9 · 21:00D. Tuma2.2551530M. Pikous1.571117113LSep 9 · 20:00M. Pikous2.008111191M. Bittner1.7311913113LSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071LSep 9 · 18:00M. Pikous1.3699111182D. Tuma3.00111155113LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122
M. Regner10
WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772WSep 8 · 12:30M. Regner2.20101211113K. Schopf1.611210551WSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161
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