TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098130
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Regner
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81161113111012––
Jakub Tazler
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 82 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Michal Regner at 54.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 8–7 Jakub Tazler Jakub Tazler has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1692 vs Tazler 1662
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Tazler 60%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Tazler 50%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Tazler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.50 / Tazler 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Regner)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098130
Regner1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 112 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it71% 84 of 119
Tazler2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 96 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner6wins
AwayTazler4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner80%4 of 5
AwayTazler60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Tazler5n = 10split evenly
S2Regner7Tazler3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S3Regner7Tazler3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S4Regner3Tazler4n = 7Tazler took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerTazlerR − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.4+1.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime507 / 1055 vs 395 / 71848.1%55%507 / 1055 vs 395 / 718Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.50/Tazler 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 10:00M. Regner—1111113J. Tazler—7870
LSep 6 · 01:00M. Regner—511551J. Tazler—11811113
WSep 3 · 08:30M. Regner—1111113J. Tazler—2570
WSep 2 · 02:30M. Regner—1411113J. Tazler—12890
LAug 31 · 12:30M. Regner—114871J. Tazler—91111113
LAug 15 · 06:30M. Regner—911891J. Tazler—11611113
WAug 14 · 01:30M. Regner—811117113J. Tazler—11881152
LJul 20 · 08:59M. Regner—118111362J. Tazler—1311911113
WJul 20 · 06:00M. Regner—71113113J. Tazler—1161191
WJul 16 · 01:00M. Regner—11413133J. Tazler—91111111
M. Regner10
WSep 9 · 23:00M. Regner1.911115113M. Sychra1.8081390LSep 9 · 22:00M. Pikous1.821311113M. Regner1.8811790WSep 8 · 13:29M. Regner2.38991111113K. Schopf1.5311118772WSep 8 · 12:30M. Regner2.20101211113K. Schopf1.611210551WSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123
J. Tazler10
WSep 10 · 01:30J. Tazler2.0061111113M. Sychra1.73112321WSep 9 · 23:30M. Pikous1.779990J. Tazler1.931111113LSep 9 · 22:30J. Tazler1.9110812101M. Skakal1.80121110123WSep 9 · 21:30M. Skakal1.72411110J. Tazler2.001113133WSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman1.67101450J. Tazler2.101216113LSep 9 · 19:00M. Skakal1.731111113J. Tazler2.008590WSep 9 · 18:30J. Tazler2.38155911113M. Klement1.53131111792LSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113WSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551
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