TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098128
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Skakal
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115119––––
Jakub Tazler
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skakal above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Martin Skakal at 61.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skakal 3–1 Jakub Tazler Jakub Tazler has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skakal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Skakal
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skakal 1689 vs Tazler 1642
Skakal
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skakal 60% vs Tazler 20%
Skakal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skakal 50% vs Tazler 30%
Skakal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skakal +1 · Tazler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skakal) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkakal 1.73 / Tazler 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Skakal)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098128
Skakal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 38 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Tazler2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 96 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkakal3wins
AwayTazler1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSkakal leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkakaln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTazler25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skakal0Tazler4n = 4Tazler took 4 of 4
S2Skakal4Tazler0n = 4Skakal took 4 of 4
S3Skakal2Tazler2n = 4split evenly
S4Skakal2Tazler2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkakalTazlerS − TBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match48.545.8+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkakalTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 139 vs 392 / 71351.1%55%71 / 139 vs 392 / 713Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalSkakal 1.73/Tazler 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 19 · 22:30M. Skakal—91118113J. Tazler—1181681
WAug 13 · 23:00M. Skakal—2111114113J. Tazler—23751172
WAug 5 · 03:30M. Skakal—7111011113J. Tazler—11712972
LAug 4 · 22:30M. Skakal—1011971J. Tazler—12711113
M. Skakal10
WSep 9 · 18:00D. Hofman2.0011118342M. Skakal1.73561111113LAug 31 · 03:30V. Vejvoda1.6511116113M. Skakal2.10691161LAug 31 · 02:30M. Skakal2.1071260V. Vejvoda1.671114113WAug 31 · 01:30M. Sobisek2.1011881182M. Skakal1.67811117113WAug 31 · 24:00M. Skakal1.731111113M. Chlebecek2.007450WAug 30 · 23:00M. Klement1.57111161082M. Skakal2.25581112113LAug 28 · 03:02M. Skakal1.73119811102R. Wagner2.00511114123LAug 28 · 02:00M. Skakal2.2051160J. Louda1.611113113LAug 28 · 01:00M. Skakal2.1011117832S. Kasnik1.67731111113WAug 28 · 24:00R. Wagner1.6791511832M. Skakal2.101113711113
J. Tazler10
WSep 9 · 18:30J. Tazler2.38155911113M. Klement1.53131111792LSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123WSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:30K. Schopf2.631161111113J. Tazler1.4461113562LSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100
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