TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13106294
Played Sep 9Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
1.77
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911911––––
Jakub Tazler
Away
1.93
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Tazler at 64.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 2–4 Jakub Tazler Marcel Pikous has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Pikous
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Tazler
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1648 vs Tazler 1659
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 40% vs Tazler 60%
Tazler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 40% vs Tazler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous +2 · Tazler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.77 / Tazler 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pikous)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13106294
Pikous1.77
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 113 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it76% 78 of 103
Tazler1.93
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 96 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePikous2wins
AwayTazler4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderTazler leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous33.3%1 of 3
AwayTazler66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous3Tazler3n = 6split evenly
S2Pikous3Tazler3n = 6split evenly
S3Pikous2Tazler4n = 6Tazler took 4 of 6
S4Pikous1Tazler3n = 4Tazler took 3 of 4
S5Pikous1Tazler2n = 3Tazler took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricPikousTazlerP − TBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.542.3−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 693 vs 394 / 71752.8%55%366 / 693 vs 394 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.77/Tazler 1.93
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 16:30M. Pikous—1211119143J. Tazler—149511122
LSep 6 · 02:00M. Pikous—118129122J. Tazler—9111011143
LAug 21 · 01:00M. Pikous—11117842J. Tazler—591111113
WJul 11 · 06:30M. Pikous—111110113J. Tazler—961281
LJun 23 · 22:30M. Pikous—8590J. Tazler—1111113
LJun 23 · 21:30M. Pikous—8590J. Tazler—1111113
M. Pikous10
WSep 9 · 22:00M. Pikous1.821311113M. Regner1.8811790WSep 9 · 21:00D. Tuma2.2551530M. Pikous1.571117113LSep 9 · 20:00M. Pikous2.008111191M. Bittner1.7311913113LSep 9 · 19:30J. Stolfa3.0011512113M. Pikous1.367111071LSep 9 · 18:00M. Pikous1.3699111182D. Tuma3.00111155113LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113
J. Tazler10
LSep 9 · 22:30J. Tazler1.9110812101M. Skakal1.80121110123WSep 9 · 21:30M. Skakal1.72411110J. Tazler2.001113133WSep 9 · 20:00D. Hofman1.67101450J. Tazler2.101216113LSep 9 · 19:00M. Skakal1.731111113J. Tazler2.008590WSep 9 · 18:30J. Tazler2.38155911113M. Klement1.53131111792LSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123WSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:30K. Schopf2.631161111113J. Tazler1.4461113562LSep 8 · 10:00J. Tazler2.007870M. Regner1.731111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143
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