TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13106425
Played Sep 10Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
1.43
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1214119115115––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 78 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 20–9 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Urbaniec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-9 in 29
Urbaniec
Correct
gap of 11 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1728 vs Kasnik 1648
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 40% vs Kasnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 40% vs Kasnik 70%
Kasnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Kasnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (40%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.43 / Kasnik 2.60
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Urbaniec)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13106425
Urbaniec1.43
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 203 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it92% 100 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it77% 137 of 179
Kasnik2.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 124 of 310
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec6wins
AwayKasnik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec80%4 of 5
AwayKasnik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Urbaniec7Kasnik3n = 10Urbaniec took 7 of 10
S3Urbaniec6Kasnik4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S4Urbaniec5Kasnik3n = 8Urbaniec took 5 of 8
S5Urbaniec1Kasnik2n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecKasnikU − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.334.3+5.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime616 / 1210 vs 478 / 100350.9%47.7%616 / 1210 vs 478 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 1.43/Kasnik 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 11:00R. Urbaniec—911591S. Kasnik—11411113
LJul 29 · 19:00R. Urbaniec—109111192S. Kasnik—121187113
WJul 27 · 11:30R. Urbaniec—11711113S. Kasnik—811231
WMay 13 · 16:59R. Urbaniec—1116113S. Kasnik—91470
LMay 13 · 16:00R. Urbaniec—11671182S. Kasnik—711116113
WApr 30 · 16:30R. Urbaniec—11117113S. Kasnik—851131
LApr 28 · 13:00R. Urbaniec—611551S. Kasnik—11911113
WApr 28 · 10:00R. Urbaniec—61111113S. Kasnik—117761
WApr 14 · 20:30R. Urbaniec—1111113S. Kasnik—9540
WApr 7 · 14:30R. Urbaniec—811118113S. Kasnik—11351192
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 10 · 24:00J. Ruzicka1.50411416113R. Urbaniec2.50115111482WSep 9 · 22:30O. Svacha1.838750R. Urbaniec1.831111113LSep 9 · 17:00R. Urbaniec1.8356100M. Jezek1.831111123LSep 9 · 16:00R. Urbaniec1.82791681O. Kolisnyk1.88111114113WSep 9 · 15:30J. Ruzicka1.4582120R. Urbaniec2.601111143LSep 9 · 14:00R. Urbaniec1.831011761M. Jezek1.7812711113WSep 8 · 12:59R. Urbaniec1.28911118113M. Sychra3.5011561172WSep 8 · 12:30R. Urbaniec1.3611812113M. Sychra3.009111031LSep 8 · 11:00R. Urbaniec2.0041191272F. Pusch1.731161110113LSep 8 · 10:00J. Ruzicka1.44911114113R. Urbaniec2.6311671172
S. Kasnik10
WSep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35101111133O. Svacha1.531299111LSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:30S. Kasnik1.33111189113K. Schopf3.2558111182WSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik2.2581111113M. Klement1.57116581WSep 8 · 08:00M. Klement1.6131110111S. Kasnik2.2011912133WSep 8 · 07:00M. Sychra2.0091111882S. Kasnik1.73112611113WSep 8 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.28121011113K. Schopf3.501012781
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
S. Kasnik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.