TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092484
Played Sep 8Finished
Jiri Ruzicka
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116117411117
Radim Urbaniec
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:07 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 66.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 40–25 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 25 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Urbaniec beat Ruzicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-25 in 65
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 15 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1686 vs Urbaniec 1704
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Urbaniec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Urbaniec 70%
Urbaniec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -1 · Urbaniec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.44 / Urbaniec 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092484
Ruzicka1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 181 of 319
Up 2–0, closes it94% 98 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it75% 130 of 174
Urbaniec2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 189 of 464
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 261
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka7wins
AwayUrbaniec3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka85.7%6 of 7
AwayUrbaniec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka7Urbaniec3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S2Ruzicka9Urbaniec1n = 10Ruzicka took 9 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Urbaniec4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka3Urbaniec1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
S5Ruzicka1Urbaniec2n = 3Urbaniec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaUrbaniecR − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.132.3+5.8per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime669 / 1384 vs 612 / 120048.3%51%669 / 1384 vs 612 / 1200Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.44/Urbaniec 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:30J. Ruzicka—91181172R. Urbaniec—119115113
WAug 29 · 12:30J. Ruzicka—1111113R. Urbaniec—6890
WAug 29 · 09:00J. Ruzicka—911411113R. Urbaniec—11411962
WAug 29 · 08:30J. Ruzicka—1111143R. Urbaniec—76120
WAug 28 · 24:00J. Ruzicka—1114113R. Urbaniec—71280
LAug 19 · 22:30J. Ruzicka—5111181R. Urbaniec—11713113
WAug 18 · 23:00J. Ruzicka—1111113R. Urbaniec—9770
LAug 15 · 22:30J. Ruzicka—11981292R. Urbaniec—9111110113
WAug 14 · 24:30J. Ruzicka—1111113R. Urbaniec—6760
WAug 6 · 24:30J. Ruzicka—1211113R. Urbaniec—10680
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 8 · 11:30M. Sychra2.751460J. Ruzicka1.401111113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Klimenta1.801311941J. Ruzicka1.91111311113WSep 8 · 07:00F. Pusch2.009070J. Ruzicka1.731111113LSep 8 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.4091181172R. Urbaniec2.75119115113WSep 3 · 12:59E. Mares1.4471311952J. Ruzicka2.631111711113LSep 3 · 12:30M. Huk1.8312119113J. Ruzicka1.831071191LSep 3 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.7561113092E. Mares1.401191111113LSep 3 · 10:30M. Zahradka1.6191111113J. Ruzicka2.20116361WSep 3 · 08:59M. Klimenta1.809860J. Ruzicka1.911111113LSep 3 · 08:30M. Klimenta1.80991111133J. Ruzicka1.91111193112
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 8 · 11:00R. Urbaniec2.0041191272F. Pusch1.731161110113WSep 8 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.5061111113M. Klimenta1.50118971LSep 8 · 08:30F. Pusch2.001111113R. Urbaniec1.737560WSep 8 · 07:30R. Urbaniec4.00111110113M. Klimenta1.22791241WSep 8 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.4091181172R. Urbaniec2.75119115113LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113
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