TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065557
Played Sep 3Finished
Jiri Ruzicka
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191311011911
Erik Mares
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 0-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 61.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 3–7 Erik Mares Jiri Ruzicka has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Mares
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1668 vs Mares 1869
Mares
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Mares 40%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 20% vs Mares 50%
Mares
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.75 / Mares 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Mares)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065557
Ruzicka2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 150 of 372
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 230
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 118
Mares1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 141 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it86% 89 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka3wins
AwayMares7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Ruzicka7Mares3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka7Mares3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S4Ruzicka3Mares5n = 8Mares took 5 of 8
S5Ruzicka0Mares4n = 4Mares took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaMaresR − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match43.845.7−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime677 / 1404 vs 589 / 117348.2%50.2%677 / 1404 vs 589 / 1173Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresRuzicka 2.75/Mares 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 22 · 13:00J. Ruzicka—4980E. Mares—1111113
LJun 22 · 10:30J. Ruzicka—591891E. Mares—111116113
LJan 19 · 11:30J. Ruzicka—10111111112E. Mares—129913133
LJan 12 · 14:00J. Ruzicka—10111113262E. Mares—128915283
LJan 12 · 11:30J. Ruzicka—941141E. Mares—11119113
WDec 23 · 04:08J. Ruzicka—111118113E. Mares—1381681
LDec 23 · 03:30J. Ruzicka—1111911112E. Mares—139116133
LDec 18 · 14:00J. Ruzicka—11119742E. Mares—681111113
WDec 18 · 12:30J. Ruzicka—91111123E. Mares—1194101
WDec 1 · 13:00J. Ruzicka—1112113E. Mares—81090
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 3 · 12:59E. Mares1.4471311952J. Ruzicka2.631111711113LSep 3 · 12:30M. Huk1.8312119113J. Ruzicka1.831071191LSep 3 · 10:30M. Zahradka1.6191111113J. Ruzicka2.20116361WSep 3 · 08:59M. Klimenta1.809860J. Ruzicka1.911111113LSep 3 · 08:30M. Klimenta1.80991111133J. Ruzicka1.91111193112LSep 3 · 07:30J. Ruzicka2.105480M. Zahradka1.671111113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Huk1.801171011113J. Ruzicka1.9161112772LSep 2 · 20:58T. Postelt1.731111153J. Ruzicka2.0079130LSep 2 · 20:30M. Huk1.83118116113J. Ruzicka1.8331181152LSep 2 · 19:30J. Ruzicka2.509750J. Kycelt1.501111113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113LSep 3 · 12:59E. Mares1.4471311952J. Ruzicka2.631111711113
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