TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105267
Played Sep 9Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5116111012––––
Michal Jezek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:54 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Michal Jezek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 55 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 59.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 4–2 Michal Jezek Michal Jezek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jezek beat Urbaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:54What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jezek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Urbaniec
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1705 vs Jezek 1772
Jezek
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 60% vs Jezek 40%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 50% vs Jezek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Jezek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jezek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.83 / Jezek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urbaniec)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105267
Urbaniec1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jezek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeUrbaniec4wins
AwayJezek2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJezek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec2Jezek4n = 6Jezek took 4 of 6
S2Urbaniec4Jezek2n = 6Urbaniec took 4 of 6
S3Urbaniec3Jezek3n = 6split evenly
S4Urbaniec4Jezek2n = 6Urbaniec took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricUrbaniecJezekU − JBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.737.7+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecJezekBasisWin rate · lifetime615 / 1207 vs 178 / 35351%50.4%615 / 1207 vs 178 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 1.83/Jezek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jezek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 9 · 14:00R. Urbaniec—1011761M. Jezek—12711113
LAug 11 · 14:00R. Urbaniec—119771M. Jezek—91111113
WJul 15 · 16:00R. Urbaniec—41111113M. Jezek—118791
WJun 17 · 17:30R. Urbaniec—11119113M. Jezek—351191
WJun 17 · 14:00R. Urbaniec—861111123M. Jezek—111174102
WJun 12 · 15:30R. Urbaniec—91112113M. Jezek—1171091
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 9 · 16:00R. Urbaniec1.82791681O. Kolisnyk1.88111114113WSep 9 · 15:30J. Ruzicka1.4582120R. Urbaniec2.601111143LSep 9 · 14:00R. Urbaniec1.831011761M. Jezek1.7812711113WSep 8 · 12:59R. Urbaniec1.28911118113M. Sychra3.5011561172WSep 8 · 12:30R. Urbaniec1.3611812113M. Sychra3.009111031LSep 8 · 11:00R. Urbaniec2.0041191272F. Pusch1.731161110113LSep 8 · 10:00J. Ruzicka1.44911114113R. Urbaniec2.6311671172WSep 8 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.5061111113M. Klimenta1.50118971LSep 8 · 08:30F. Pusch2.001111113R. Urbaniec1.737560WSep 8 · 07:30R. Urbaniec4.00111110113M. Klimenta1.22791241
M. Jezek10
LSep 9 · 16:30M. Jezek1.915260J. Ruzicka1.801111113LSep 9 · 15:00M. Jezek1.731212841O. Kolisnyk2.00101411113WSep 9 · 14:00R. Urbaniec1.831011761M. Jezek1.7812711113WSep 3 · 17:28M. Jezek2.20111011113J. Kanera1.61612461LSep 3 · 16:00J. Kanera1.57118119123M. Jezek2.25611911102WSep 3 · 15:00O. Svacha2.2511980M. Jezek1.571311113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Jezek1.33611119113V. Kolar3.2511481192WSep 2 · 17:00M. Jezek2.3811911113J. Ruzicka1.53611571LSep 2 · 16:30M. Jezek1.5311571662O. Svacha2.387111114113WSep 2 · 15:00M. Jezek1.91117612113J. Ruzicka1.80811111082
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
Sep 9 · 22:30R. Urbaniec1.83O. Svacha1.83—Sep 10 · 24:00R. Urbaniec2.63J. Ruzicka1.44—Sep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec2.20M. Hampl1.61—Sep 10 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.38M. Wagner1.53—Sep 10 · 14:00R. Urbaniec2.25V. Nohejl1.57—Sep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.40A. Brazda2.75—Sep 10 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.83O. Svacha1.83—
M. Jezek
Nothing scheduled
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