TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065309
Played Sep 3Finished
Ondrej Svacha
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911811––––
Michal Jezek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Jezek to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Svacha above · Michal Jezek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Michal Jezek at 55.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Svacha 11–16 Michal Jezek Ondrej Svacha has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jezek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Jezek
Correct
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svacha 1701 vs Jezek 1773
Jezek
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svacha 60% vs Jezek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svacha 50% vs Jezek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svacha +1 · Jezek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jezek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svacha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvacha 2.25 / Jezek 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Jezek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13065309
Svacha2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 87 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back33% 24 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Jezek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvacha4wins
AwayJezek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJezek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvacha60%3 of 5
AwayJezek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svacha5Jezek5n = 10split evenly
S2Svacha4Jezek6n = 10Jezek took 6 of 10
S3Svacha5Jezek5n = 10split evenly
S4Svacha1Jezek7n = 8Jezek took 7 of 8
S5Svacha3Jezek2n = 5Svacha took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvachaJezekS − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.041.2−2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvachaJezekBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 786 vs 175 / 34750.6%50.4%398 / 786 vs 175 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JezekSvacha 2.25/Jezek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Jezek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jezek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 16:30O. Svacha—7111114113M. Jezek—11571662
WAug 25 · 16:58O. Svacha—119116133M. Jezek—511811112
WAug 25 · 15:30O. Svacha—11811113M. Jezek—911761
WJul 15 · 17:06O. Svacha—1111107113M. Jezek—48121172
LJul 15 · 14:00O. Svacha—11911542M. Jezek—911811113
LJun 30 · 15:30O. Svacha—9760M. Jezek—1111113
LDec 26 · 14:30O. Svacha—31111792M. Jezek—117611113
LDec 26 · 12:00O. Svacha—67100M. Jezek—1111123
LDec 19 · 20:00O. Svacha—713681M. Jezek—111111113
LDec 16 · 15:00O. Svacha—119691M. Jezek—61111113
O. Svacha10
WSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:30V. Vejvoda2.101111133O. Svacha1.6758110LSep 5 · 07:30O. Svacha3.0011871192V. Nohejl1.36611115113WSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113WSep 3 · 16:58O. Svacha1.401111113V. Kolar2.754370WSep 3 · 16:30O. Svacha1.57111011113V. Kolar2.25312341WSep 3 · 14:00J. Kanera1.5011611422O. Svacha2.50811411113LSep 2 · 17:30P. Gireth1.30912119153O. Svacha2.951110611132WSep 2 · 16:30M. Jezek1.5311571662O. Svacha2.387111114113LSep 2 · 15:30O. Svacha3.258850P. Gireth1.331111113
M. Jezek10
WSep 3 · 17:28M. Jezek2.20111011113J. Kanera1.61612461LSep 3 · 16:00J. Kanera1.57118119123M. Jezek2.25611911102WSep 3 · 14:30M. Jezek1.33611119113V. Kolar3.2511481192WSep 2 · 17:00M. Jezek2.3811911113J. Ruzicka1.53611571LSep 2 · 16:30M. Jezek1.5311571662O. Svacha2.387111114113WSep 2 · 15:00M. Jezek1.91117612113J. Ruzicka1.80811111082LSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth1.441111113M. Jezek2.638690WAug 26 · 17:00M. Jezek2.001111113V. Nohejl1.735770WAug 26 · 16:30M. Jezek2.1011111215113V. Nohejl1.67139141352LAug 26 · 15:00M. Jezek2.0098100J. Ruzicka1.731111123
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