TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105001
Played Sep 10Finished
Jiri Louda
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181141012911911
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Louda above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jiri Louda at 56.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Louda 45–26 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 26 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Louda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-26 in 71
Louda
Wrong
gap of 19 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Louda 1720 vs Kasnik 1606
Louda
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Louda 80% vs Kasnik 20%
Louda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Louda 80% vs Kasnik 40%
Louda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Louda +3 · Kasnik -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Louda) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLouda 1.67 / Kasnik 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Louda)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105001
Louda1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite57% won 201 of 352
Up 2–0, closes it88% 92 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it74% 145 of 197
Kasnik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 125 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back19% 32 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLouda6wins
AwayKasnik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLouda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLouda71.4%5 of 7
AwayKasnik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Louda7Kasnik3n = 10Louda took 7 of 10
S2Louda5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Louda6Kasnik4n = 10Louda took 6 of 10
S4Louda2Kasnik4n = 6Kasnik took 4 of 6
S5Louda2Kasnik1n = 3Louda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLoudaKasnikL − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.033.1+4.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLoudaKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime608 / 1193 vs 478 / 100651%47.5%608 / 1193 vs 478 / 1006Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaLouda 1.67/Kasnik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:00J. Louda—81111762S. Kasnik—115311113
LSep 1 · 14:00J. Louda—115681S. Kasnik—31111113
WAug 28 · 03:28J. Louda—114911113S. Kasnik—41111752
LAug 27 · 22:00J. Louda—8580S. Kasnik—1111113
WAug 21 · 03:30J. Louda—1213113S. Kasnik—101150
LAug 20 · 23:00J. Louda—1176131S. Kasnik—71111153
WAug 16 · 22:00J. Louda—12131111113S. Kasnik—141161342
WJun 21 · 09:00J. Louda—1111123S. Kasnik—49100
WJun 21 · 07:00J. Louda—11911113S. Kasnik—811341
WJun 20 · 21:28J. Louda—1111113S. Kasnik—7630
J. Louda10
WSep 10 · 22:00M. Klement2.1081111982J. Louda1.67118811113WSep 9 · 21:28J. Louda1.44131112113M. Vondrak2.631591051WSep 9 · 20:30J. Louda1.5313911113M. Sychra2.381111691LSep 9 · 19:00J. Louda1.4012811982M. Vondrak2.751011511113WSep 9 · 18:00R. Rose1.678101191J. Louda2.1011127113WSep 7 · 03:30M. Sychra2.40371191J. Louda1.5011117113WSep 7 · 02:30J. Louda1.731412113V. Vejvoda2.00121080LSep 7 · 01:30M. Sychra2.5012111112113J. Louda1.50149131062WSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660WSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122LSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551WSep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35101111133O. Svacha1.531299111LSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:30S. Kasnik1.33111189113K. Schopf3.2558111182WSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik2.2581111113M. Klement1.57116581
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