TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105825
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116119119––
Martin Sychra
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:34 and never touched — 65.0% is still 65.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
65.0%
65.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Martin Sychra below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 65.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 16–14 Martin Sychra Martin Sychra has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1621 vs Sychra 1599
Kasnik
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 40% vs Sychra 60%
Sychra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 40% vs Sychra 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +1 · Sychra -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 1.73 / Sychra 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kasnik)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105825
Kasnik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 117 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it91% 68 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it71% 95 of 133
Sychra2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 182 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back26% 51 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik7wins
AwaySychra3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik77.8%7 of 9
AwaySychran = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik9Sychra1n = 10Kasnik took 9 of 10
S2Kasnik5Sychra5n = 10split evenly
S3Kasnik6Sychra4n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik4Sychra3n = 7Kasnik took 4 of 7
S5Kasnik3Sychra3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikSychraK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.338.4+3.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikSychraBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1003 vs 802 / 152247.5%52.7%476 / 1003 vs 802 / 1522Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikKasnik 1.73/Sychra 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:00S. Kasnik—112611113M. Sychra—91111882
WSep 1 · 22:30S. Kasnik—1111113M. Sychra—3960
LAug 26 · 12:30S. Kasnik—119111682M. Sychra—4111314113
WAug 26 · 09:29S. Kasnik—1111113M. Sychra—8880
WAug 26 · 08:30S. Kasnik—1111119113M. Sychra—21391172
WAug 21 · 24:30S. Kasnik—12116113M. Sychra—1041161
WAug 19 · 21:58S. Kasnik—1111113M. Sychra—9980
LAug 18 · 16:00S. Kasnik—91191172M. Sychra—118117113
LAug 17 · 02:58S. Kasnik—11312572M. Sychra—7111011113
WAug 16 · 23:00S. Kasnik—119117123M. Sychra—911411102
S. Kasnik10
WSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113LSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122LSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551WSep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35101111133O. Svacha1.531299111LSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123LSep 8 · 12:00J. Tazler2.001111113S. Kasnik1.737590LSep 8 · 11:00M. Regner2.63911611153S. Kasnik1.44118115132WSep 8 · 10:30S. Kasnik1.33111189113K. Schopf3.2558111182
M. Sychra10
LSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132WSep 10 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8371111113M. Regner1.83115491WSep 10 · 02:30M. Sychra1.9611118113M. Pikous1.67931181LSep 10 · 01:30J. Tazler2.0061111113M. Sychra1.73112321WSep 10 · 24:00M. Sychra1.801114113M. Skakal1.9161270LSep 9 · 23:00M. Regner1.911115113M. Sychra1.8081390LSep 9 · 20:58R. Rose2.63111157113M. Sychra1.4484111152LSep 9 · 20:30J. Louda1.5313911113M. Sychra2.381111691WSep 9 · 19:30M. Sychra1.44111116113R. Rose2.639131491LSep 9 · 18:30M. Vondrak1.5711117113M. Sychra2.25971131
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