TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105107
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1186111315119118
Milan Klement
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:08 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMilan Klement to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Milan Klement below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 103 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Milan Klement at 58.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 23–31 Milan Klement Sebastian Kasnik has won 23 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Klement
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-31 in 54
Klement
Wrong
gap of 8 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1649 vs Klement 1592
Kasnik
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 60% vs Klement 0%
Kasnik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 50% vs Klement 20%
Kasnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +3 · Klement -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Klement) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Klement form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.20 / Klement 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Klement)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13105107
Kasnik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 125 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back19% 32 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 95
Klement1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it90% 62 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it72% 89 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik4wins
AwayKlement6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKlement leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik60%3 of 5
AwayKlement80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik5Klement5n = 10split evenly
S2Kasnik6Klement4n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S3Kasnik4Klement6n = 10Klement took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik4Klement5n = 9Klement took 5 of 9
S5Kasnik1Klement3n = 4Klement took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikKlementKasnik − KlementBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.941.9−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikKlementBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 1005 vs 452 / 88347.6%51.2%478 / 1005 vs 452 / 883Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KlementKasnik 2.20/Klement 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Klement · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik—81111113M. Klement—116581
WSep 8 · 08:00S. Kasnik—11912133M. Klement—31110111
LSep 3 · 08:00S. Kasnik—101161192M. Klement—127119113
LSep 2 · 24:30S. Kasnik—111110762M. Klement—591211113
LAug 26 · 07:00S. Kasnik—11117552M. Klement—991111113
LAug 24 · 08:00S. Kasnik—7520M. Klement—1111113
LAug 20 · 10:00S. Kasnik—841121M. Klement—11118113
LJun 29 · 10:30S. Kasnik—81012121M. Klement—111210143
WJun 3 · 11:30S. Kasnik—151178113M. Klement—138111182
WMay 29 · 02:58S. Kasnik—11116113M. Klement—791161
S. Kasnik10
WSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881WSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.7381111113M. Sychra2.00116991WSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113LSep 10 · 02:59R. Urbaniec1.501111113S. Kasnik2.507790LSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122LSep 10 · 01:00R. Urbaniec1.43121111113S. Kasnik2.60149551WSep 9 · 23:30S. Kasnik2.35101111133O. Svacha1.531299111LSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123WSep 8 · 12:58J. Tazler2.1096100S. Kasnik1.671111123
M. Klement10
LSep 11 · 01:00M. Sychra1.5711119113M. Klement2.25761181LSep 10 · 23:30M. Klement1.80116761M. Regner1.9191111113LSep 10 · 22:00M. Klement2.1081111982J. Louda1.67118811113LSep 9 · 21:00M. Klement1.8371111792D. Hofman1.83113211113LSep 9 · 20:30M. Skakal2.1071111113M. Klement1.67115791WSep 9 · 19:30M. Klement1.831111113D. Hofman1.834570LSep 9 · 18:30J. Tazler2.38155911113M. Klement1.53131111792LSep 8 · 09:28S. Kasnik2.2581111113M. Klement1.57116581LSep 8 · 08:00M. Klement1.6131110111S. Kasnik2.2011912133WSep 8 · 07:30K. Schopf2.635580M. Klement1.441111113
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