TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115007
Played Sep 12Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151169111210––
Michal Regner
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Petr Saleny at 58.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 17–12 Michal Regner Michal Regner has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-12 in 29
Saleny
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1705 vs Regner 1696
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 80% vs Regner 60%
Saleny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 70% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny +3 · Regner +1
Saleny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 1.61 / Regner 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Saleny)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115007
Saleny1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Regner2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 118 of 263
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSaleny6wins
AwayRegner4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSaleny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny80%4 of 5
AwayRegner60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Saleny5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Saleny6Regner4n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S4Saleny5Regner2n = 7Saleny took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalenyRegnerS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.9+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 415 vs 507 / 105251.8%48.2%215 / 415 vs 507 / 1052Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenySaleny 1.61/Regner 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 08:00P. Saleny—101211123M. Regner—12106101
WJul 29 · 07:30P. Saleny—12911113M. Regner—1011941
LJul 8 · 11:30P. Saleny—5550M. Regner—1111113
LJul 8 · 09:30P. Saleny—101171192M. Regner—128115113
WJul 8 · 07:30P. Saleny—1216113M. Regner—101480
LApr 4 · 09:30P. Saleny—113771M. Regner—51111113
WApr 4 · 06:30P. Saleny—861211113M. Regner—111110852
LMar 13 · 08:30P. Saleny—611391M. Regner—11911113
WFeb 27 · 10:00P. Saleny—1111123M. Regner—67100
WFeb 27 · 09:30P. Saleny—111211113M. Regner—714791
P. Saleny10
WSep 12 · 10:30M. Sychra2.504511101P. Saleny1.5011117123WSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711WSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra2.7551111113P. Saleny1.40119881WSep 12 · 06:00P. Saleny2.10111158113M. Klement1.6745111152WSep 9 · 13:00V. Vejvoda1.7391017101P. Saleny2.00111215123WSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171LSep 9 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.61131111113P. Saleny2.201181391LSep 9 · 10:00P. Saleny2.001111371F. Pusch1.7313911113WSep 9 · 09:28P. Saleny1.7351120113F. Pusch2.001181891
M. Regner10
WSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113WSep 10 · 23:30M. Klement1.80116761M. Regner1.9191111113WSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132LSep 10 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8371111113M. Regner1.83115491WSep 10 · 02:00M. Skakal1.57111179102M. Regner2.25661111123LSep 10 · 24:30M. Regner1.508613101J. Tazler2.50111111123WSep 9 · 23:00M. Regner1.911115113M. Sychra1.8081390
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