TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114727
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Sychra
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4115111171012––
Petr Saleny
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:05 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sychra above · Petr Saleny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 71 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Petr Saleny at 62.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sychra 7–15 Petr Saleny Martin Sychra has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sychra beat Saleny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-15 in 22
Saleny
Correct
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sychra 1644 vs Saleny 1709
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sychra 80% vs Saleny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sychra 60% vs Saleny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sychra +1 · Saleny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saleny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSychra 2.50 / Saleny 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Saleny)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114727
Sychra2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 181 of 379
Down 0–1, comes back26% 51 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 113
Saleny1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSychra2wins
AwaySaleny8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSaleny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSychra33.3%1 of 3
AwaySaleny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sychra3Saleny7n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S2Sychra3Saleny7n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S3Sychra4Saleny6n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S4Sychra2Saleny6n = 8Saleny took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSychraSalenySychra − SalenyBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.440.6−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSychraSalenyBasisWin rate · lifetime800 / 1517 vs 214 / 41652.7%51.4%800 / 1517 vs 214 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenySychra 2.50/Saleny 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra—51111113P. Saleny—119881
LJul 29 · 10:30M. Sychra—1221171P. Saleny—14118113
LJul 29 · 06:00M. Sychra—35100P. Saleny—1111123
LJul 8 · 13:11M. Sychra—511591P. Saleny—11711113
LJul 8 · 10:30M. Sychra—94110P. Saleny—1111133
LJul 8 · 06:30M. Sychra—1211451P. Saleny—101311113
LJul 4 · 13:00M. Sychra—12311171P. Saleny—14116193
LJul 4 · 10:30M. Sychra—119581P. Saleny—41111113
LJul 4 · 06:30M. Sychra—51141192P. Saleny—119116113
WJul 2 · 10:00M. Sychra—11101111113P. Saleny—71211342
M. Sychra10
WSep 12 · 09:30M. Sychra1.6781111133M. Klement2.101177111LSep 12 · 08:30M. Klement2.38118116113M. Sychra1.5391131162WSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra2.7551111113P. Saleny1.40119881WSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.67911451M. Sychra2.1011811113WSep 11 · 02:59J. Louda1.50911591M. Sychra2.5011911113LSep 11 · 02:00M. Sychra2.38561251J. Louda1.53111110113WSep 11 · 01:00M. Sychra1.5711119113M. Klement2.25761181LSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.7381111113M. Sychra2.00116991LSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132WSep 10 · 02:58M. Sychra1.8371111113M. Regner1.83115491
P. Saleny10
WSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711WSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra2.7551111113P. Saleny1.40119881WSep 12 · 06:00P. Saleny2.10111158113M. Klement1.6745111152WSep 9 · 13:00V. Vejvoda1.7391017101P. Saleny2.00111215123WSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171LSep 9 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.61131111113P. Saleny2.201181391LSep 9 · 10:00P. Saleny2.001111371F. Pusch1.7313911113WSep 9 · 09:28P. Saleny1.7351120113F. Pusch2.001181891WSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113
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