TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099181
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210115911117––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Richard Wagner at 60.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 2–5 Richard Wagner Petr Saleny has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Saleny beat Wagner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1663 vs Wagner 1704
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 60% vs Wagner 40%
Saleny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 40% vs Wagner 70%
Wagner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -2 · Wagner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 2.00 / Wagner 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Wagner)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099181
Saleny2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 28 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Wagner1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSaleny2wins
AwayWagner5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderWagner leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny25%1 of 4
AwayWagner66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny4Wagner3n = 7Saleny took 4 of 7
S2Saleny4Wagner3n = 7Saleny took 4 of 7
S3Saleny3Wagner4n = 7Wagner took 4 of 7
S4Saleny3Wagner4n = 7Wagner took 4 of 7
S5Saleny0Wagner3n = 3Wagner took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSalenyWagnerS − WBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.343.3−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 414 vs 99 / 18850.7%52.7%210 / 414 vs 99 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerSaleny 2.00/Wagner 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 9 · 08:30P. Saleny—61211113R. Wagner—1110551
LSep 4 · 13:00P. Saleny—13115452R. Wagner—1191111113
LSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny—61151192R. Wagner—118117113
WSep 4 · 06:30P. Saleny—111211113R. Wagner—914691
LAug 25 · 13:30P. Saleny—12611952R. Wagner—1011911113
LAug 25 · 10:00P. Saleny—119981R. Wagner—71111113
LAug 25 · 06:30P. Saleny—511341R. Wagner—11811113
P. Saleny10
LSep 9 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.61131111113P. Saleny2.201181391LSep 9 · 10:00P. Saleny2.001111371F. Pusch1.7313911113WSep 9 · 09:28P. Saleny1.7351120113F. Pusch2.001181891WSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113WSep 9 · 07:30P. Saleny2.381111113V. Vejvoda1.535870WSep 9 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73591181P. Saleny2.0011114113LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102
R. Wagner10
WSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113WSep 9 · 10:30R. Wagner1.618111210143V. Vejvoda2.201161012122LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113WSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691
Upcoming Matches
P. Saleny
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R. Wagner
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