TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098837
Played Sep 9Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116121010121412
Viktor Vejvoda
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Viktor Vejvoda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 106 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Richard Wagner at 57.1%
106 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 9–3 Viktor Vejvoda Viktor Vejvoda has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Wagner beat Vejvoda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Wagner
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1684 vs Vejvoda 1768
Vejvoda
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Vejvoda 20%
Wagner
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Vejvoda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -2 · Vejvoda -3
Vejvoda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Wagner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vejvoda form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Vejvoda 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Wagner)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098837
Wagner1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Vejvoda2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 99 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back22% 29 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner8wins
AwayVejvoda2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner100%8 of 8
AwayVejvodan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner8Vejvoda2n = 10Wagner took 8 of 10
S2Wagner7Vejvoda3n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S3Wagner2Vejvoda8n = 10Vejvoda took 8 of 10
S4Wagner7Vejvoda2n = 9Wagner took 7 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerVejvodaW − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.536.9+4.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerVejvodaBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 186 vs 463 / 88752.2%52.2%97 / 186 vs 463 / 887Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Vejvoda 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner—81070V. Vejvoda—1112113
WSep 9 · 06:00R. Wagner—111112113V. Vejvoda—791481
LSep 4 · 12:00R. Wagner—8121151V. Vejvoda—111013113
WAug 1 · 19:00R. Wagner—111416113V. Vejvoda—9161451
WJul 28 · 20:30R. Wagner—11118113V. Vejvoda—851181
WJul 28 · 16:30R. Wagner—11911113V. Vejvoda—611991
WJul 25 · 17:00R. Wagner—11118193V. Vejvoda—8711171
WJul 25 · 15:30R. Wagner—11119113V. Vejvoda—881141
WJul 25 · 12:00R. Wagner—111165113V. Vejvoda—46111132
WJul 22 · 14:30R. Wagner—11115123V. Vejvoda—4711101
R. Wagner10
LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171WSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113WSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691
V. Vejvoda10
LSep 9 · 12:30F. Pusch1.6711111115123V. Vejvoda2.10138417102WSep 9 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.61131111113P. Saleny2.201181391WSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.9110360F. Pusch1.801211113LSep 9 · 07:30P. Saleny2.381111113V. Vejvoda1.535870LSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102LSep 7 · 02:30J. Louda1.731412113V. Vejvoda2.00121080WSep 7 · 01:00K. Schopf2.7534100V. Vejvoda1.401111123LSep 6 · 23:30V. Vejvoda1.6711116862M. Sychra2.10761111113
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