TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098839
Played Sep 9Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1161012511511––
Petr Saleny
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:22 and never touched — 74.8% is still 74.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
74.8%
74.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Petr Saleny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 74.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 5–1 Petr Saleny Petr Saleny has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1710 vs Saleny 1637
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Saleny 40%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Saleny 30%
Wagner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Saleny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Saleny 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wagner)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098839
Wagner1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Saleny2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 28 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeWagner5wins
AwaySaleny1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderWagner leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagnern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySaleny25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner2Saleny4n = 6Saleny took 4 of 6
S2Wagner3Saleny3n = 6split evenly
S3Wagner4Saleny2n = 6Wagner took 4 of 6
S4Wagner4Saleny2n = 6Wagner took 4 of 6
S5Wagner3Saleny0n = 3Wagner took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricWagnerSalenyW − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match45.338.0+7.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerSalenyBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 184 vs 209 / 41152.7%50.9%97 / 184 vs 209 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Saleny 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner—1191111113P. Saleny—13115452
WSep 4 · 11:00R. Wagner—118117113P. Saleny—61151192
LSep 4 · 06:30R. Wagner—914691P. Saleny—111211113
WAug 25 · 13:30R. Wagner—1011911113P. Saleny—12611952
WAug 25 · 10:00R. Wagner—71111113P. Saleny—119981
WAug 25 · 06:30R. Wagner—11811113P. Saleny—511341
R. Wagner10
LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113WSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781
P. Saleny10
WSep 9 · 07:30P. Saleny2.381111113V. Vejvoda1.535870WSep 9 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73591181P. Saleny2.0011114113LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151
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